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Championship

Referee: Mark Haywood

Bolton

U U S U T

2–2

Full-time

Brighton

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Championship · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

13%

75%

Points per game

0,9

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

38%

Both score Ø 44%

38%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,5

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

59% Possession 41%

15 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 4

3 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Bolton 21. · Brighton 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	8	6	2	0	+6	20
2	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+9	17
3	Burnley	8	4	3	1	+3	15
4	Hull	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Derby	9	3	5	1	+3	14
6	Ipswich	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Reading	8	3	3	2	+6	12
8	Birmingham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
9	Cardiff	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Nott'm Forest	9	3	3	3	+0	12
11	QPR	9	3	3	3	-3	12
12	Fulham	8	3	2	3	+4	11
13	Leeds	8	2	5	1	+1	11
14	Huddersfield	9	2	4	3	-1	10
15	Sheffield Weds	8	2	3	3	-2	9
16	Charlton	8	2	3	3	-2	9
17	Brentford	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
19	Blackburn	8	1	4	3	+0	7
20	Milton Keynes Dons	9	2	1	6	-5	7
21	Bolton	8	1	4	3	-6	7
22	Preston	8	1	3	4	-4	6
23	Rotherham	8	1	2	5	-8	5
24	Bristol City	8	1	2	5	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	4	4	0	0	+4	12
2	Hull	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Burnley	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Middlesbrough	4	3	0	1	+6	9
5	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+4	7
6	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Huddersfield	5	1	3	1	+2	6
12	Bolton	4	1	3	0	+1	6
13	Reading	4	1	2	1	+3	5
14	Blackburn	4	1	2	1	+2	5
15	QPR	4	1	2	1	+1	5
16	Wolves	4	1	2	1	+0	5
17	Brentford	3	1	1	1	-1	4
18	Nott'm Forest	4	1	1	2	-1	4
19	Rotherham	4	1	1	2	-4	4
20	Leeds	4	0	3	1	-1	3
21	Derby	4	0	3	1	-1	3
22	Milton Keynes Dons	5	1	0	4	-5	3
23	Preston	4	0	2	2	-2	2
24	Bristol City	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Derby	5	3	2	0	+4	11
2	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	8
3	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Nott'm Forest	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Reading	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Ipswich	4	2	1	1	-2	7
8	QPR	5	2	1	2	-4	7
9	Birmingham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
10	Cardiff	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Burnley	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Fulham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Milton Keynes Dons	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Hull	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Preston	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Bristol City	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-3	4
19	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-2	3
20	Blackburn	4	0	2	2	-2	2
21	Sheffield Weds	4	0	2	2	-3	2
22	Charlton	4	0	2	2	-4	2
23	Rotherham	4	0	1	3	-4	1
24	Bolton	4	0	1	3	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.