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Serie A

Referee: Massimiliano Irrati

Roma

U S S U T

5–1

Full-time

Carpi

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Carpi

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

1,6

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

1,6

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

68% Possession 32%

17 Shots 13

10 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 9. · Carpi 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	5	5	0	0	+5	15
2	Fiorentina	5	4	0	1	+4	12
3	Sassuolo	5	3	2	0	+3	11
4	Chievo	5	3	1	1	+6	10
5	Sampdoria	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Torino	5	3	1	1	+4	10
7	Milan	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Lazio	5	3	0	2	-4	9
9	Roma	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Atalanta	5	2	2	1	+2	8
11	Palermo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Napoli	5	1	3	1	+4	6
13	Juventus	5	1	2	2	+0	5
14	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Verona	5	0	3	2	-3	3
16	Udinese	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	Genoa	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-5	3
19	Carpi	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Frosinone	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sampdoria	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Lazio	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Fiorentina	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Inter	3	3	0	0	+3	9
5	Chievo	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Torino	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Milan	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+5	4
9	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Roma	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Palermo	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Verona	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Juventus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Carpi	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Empoli	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Udinese	3	0	0	3	-3	0
20	Frosinone	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Inter	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Chievo	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Roma	3	1	1	1	+1	4
5	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	4
6	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Juventus	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Empoli	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Palermo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Udinese	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Milan	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Napoli	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Carpi	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Verona	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Frosinone	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Genoa	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Bologna	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Lazio	2	0	0	2	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.