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Conference League
Referee: P Kralovic
Derry City
U S S U T
1–0
Full-time
FK Tobol Kostanay
S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derry City FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,2
2,2
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,5
This season — Conference League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 50%
40%
60%
Points per game
1,6
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
40%
60%
Both score Ø 50%
40%
60%
Average goals
2,2
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,4
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%
17 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 9
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
13 Free kicks against 28
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. Aug -23 FK Tobol Kostanay – Derry City 1–0

Match report

Derry City FK Tobol Kostanay
14′
🟨 Serges Deblé
1–0 W. Patching ⚽
15′
Half-time 1–0
C. Kavanagh 🔁
↦ J. McGonigle
64′
P. McEleney 🔁
↦ W. Patching
64′
Adam O'Reilly 🟨
69′
72′
🟨 Bagdat Kairov
C. Dummigan 🔁
↦ A. OReilly
75′
76′
🔁 R. Orazov
↦ I. Ivanović
76′
🔁 Y. Shakhov
↦ S. Zharynbetov
84′
🔁 P. Kireenko
↦ S. Muzhikov
86′
🟨 Roman Asrankulov
J. McEneff 🔁
↦ S. Diallo
88′
B. Kavanagh 🔁
↦ P. McMullan
88′
91′
🔁 A. Gabaraev
↦ B. Kairov
Michael Duffy 🟨
95′
104′
🟨 Ivan Rogač
D. Mullen 🔁
↦ M. Duffy
112′
113′
🔁 P. Zabelin
↦ S. Deblé
Danny Mullen 🟨
115′
118′
🟨 Bojan Mlađović
2–0 P. McEleney ⚽
121′
122′
⚽ R. Orazov 2–1
3–1 B. Kavanagh ⚽
123′
124′
⚽ M. Vukadinović 3–2
4–2 D. Mullen ⚽
125′
126′
⚽ Y. Shakhov 4–3
5–3 J. McEneff ⚽
127′
128′
⚽ R. Asrankulov 5–4
B. Doherty ❌
penalty missed
129′
130′
❌ J. Ilić
penalty missed
6–4 C. Kavanagh ⚽
131′
132′
⚽ B. Mlađović 6–5
B. Maher ❌
penalty missed
133′
134′
⚽ P. Kireenko 6–6
Full-time 6–6

Line-ups

Derry City

4-3-3
1 B. Maher G
2 R. Boyce D
6 M. Connolly D
17 C. McJannet D
14 B. Doherty D
28 A. O'Reilly M
15 S. Diallo M
8 W. Patching M
12 P. McMullan M
9 J. McGonigle F
7 M. Duffy M
Bench (11)
29 C. Kavanagh
10 P. McEleney
23 C. Dummigan
22 J. McEneff
20 B. Kavanagh
21 D. Mullen
16 S. McEleney
45 J. Lemoignan
26 T. Ryan
24 S. Todd
3 C. Coll

Coach: R. Higgins

FK Tobol Kostanay

4-2-3-1
23 I. Konovalov G
24 B. Kairov D
4 I. Rogač M
30 B. Mlađović D
3 R. Asrankulov D
14 S. Zharynbetov M
6 J. Ilić M
70 I. Ivanović F
10 S. Muzhikov M
21 M. Vukadinović M
8 S. Deblé F
Bench (10)
20 R. Orazov
90 Y. Shakhov
18 P. Kireenko
15 A. Gabaraev
13 P. Zabelin
5 D. Semchenkov
12 S. Busurmanov
17 T. Zhakupov
28 Y. Melikhov
51 B. Galym

Coach: M. Ćurčić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.