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Championship

Referee: S Allison

Millwall

U S T U U

1–0

Full-time

Plymouth

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Plymouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 25%

20%

30%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,19 xG 0,63

39% Possession 61%

13 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

4 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 21. · Plymouth 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	11	6	4	1	+11	+10.7	22
2	Sunderland	10	7	1	2	+11	+3.4	22
3	Burnley	10	6	3	1	+12	+1.7	21
4	Sheffield United	10	6	3	1	+7	+3.6	21
5	West Brom	10	5	3	2	+6	+5.4	18
6	Blackburn	10	5	3	2	+5	-0.5	18
7	Norwich	11	4	5	2	+6	+5.0	17
8	Watford	11	5	1	5	-4	-5.6	16
9	Bristol City	11	3	6	2	-2	+1.2	15
10	Oxford	11	3	5	3	+2	-3.1	14
11	Middlesbrough	10	4	2	4	+1	+9.6	14
12	Derby	11	4	2	5	+0	-1.9	14
13	Swansea	11	3	4	4	+1	-2.4	13
14	Preston	11	3	4	4	-4	-2.9	13
15	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-2	-5.0	12
16	Hull	10	3	3	4	-2	-3.2	12
17	Sheffield Weds	11	3	3	5	-6	-2.0	12
18	Luton	10	3	2	5	-4	+1.8	11
19	Cardiff	11	3	2	6	-7	-2.1	11
20	Plymouth	10	3	2	5	-8	-10.6	11
21	Millwall	10	2	4	4	+1	+7.5	10
22	Coventry	11	2	3	6	-4	+1.4	9
23	QPR	11	1	5	5	-8	-2.8	8
24	Portsmouth	11	1	5	5	-12	-9.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Blackburn	5	5	0	0	+9	+2.2	15
2	Sunderland	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.4	13
3	Leeds	6	4	1	1	+7	+7.1	13
4	Watford	5	4	1	0	+6	+1.4	13
5	Sheffield United	5	4	1	0	+5	+4.9	13
6	Derby	5	4	0	1	+6	+1.1	12
7	Oxford	6	3	3	0	+5	-0.7	12
8	Burnley	5	3	2	0	+7	+0.9	11
9	Preston	6	3	2	1	+3	+2.0	11
10	Plymouth	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.3	10
11	Norwich	5	2	3	0	+7	+5.5	9
12	Swansea	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.3	9
13	Cardiff	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.5	9
14	Bristol City	5	2	3	0	+2	+0.8	9
15	Stoke	6	2	2	2	+3	-0.8	8
16	Sheffield Weds	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.9	8
17	Middlesbrough	5	2	2	1	+1	+8.0	8
18	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	+3.7	8
19	Millwall	5	2	1	2	+3	+6.8	7
20	Luton	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.2	7
21	Coventry	5	2	0	3	+1	+3.3	6
22	Hull	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.7	5
23	QPR	6	0	3	3	-5	+0.5	3
24	Portsmouth	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+5	+1.6	10
2	Burnley	5	3	1	1	+5	+0.8	10
3	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.6	9
4	Sunderland	5	3	0	2	+3	+2.0	9
5	Sheffield United	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.3	8
6	Norwich	6	2	2	2	-1	-0.5	8
7	Hull	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.9	7
8	Middlesbrough	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
9	Bristol City	6	1	3	2	-4	+0.4	6
10	QPR	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.3	5
11	Portsmouth	6	1	2	3	-7	-6.2	5
12	Swansea	6	1	1	4	-3	-4.7	4
13	Luton	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.4	4
14	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-5	-4.2	4
15	Sheffield Weds	5	1	1	3	-7	-4.9	4
16	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-2	+0.8	3
17	Blackburn	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.7	3
18	Coventry	6	0	3	3	-5	-2.0	3
19	Watford	6	1	0	5	-10	-7.0	3
20	Oxford	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.4	2
21	Derby	6	0	2	4	-6	-3.0	2
22	Preston	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
23	Cardiff	5	0	2	3	-9	-1.6	2
24	Plymouth	5	0	1	4	-11	-10.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.