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Primeira Liga

Referee: David Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Sp Lisbon

S S S T U

3–2

Full-time

Guimaraes

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

100%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

4,2

2,2

Scored

2,8

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

1,0

Scored

2,0

0,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,14 xG 1,24

56% Possession 44%

5 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 12. · Guimaraes 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
2	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
3	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
5	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
6	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
7	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
8	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.4	1
9	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
10	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
11	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
12	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
13	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
14	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
15	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
16	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
17	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.8	0
18	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
2	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
3	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
4	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
5	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
6	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
7	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
8	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
9	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
2	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
3	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.4	1
4	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
5	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
6	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
7	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
8	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
9	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.