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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Tondela

S T S T T

2–1

Full-time

Maritimo

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 28%

28%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

39%

61%

Both score Ø 48%

39%

56%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

54% Possession 46%

13 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

22 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 13. · Maritimo 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	19	16	3	0	+30	51
2	Porto	19	12	5	2	+22	41
3	Sp Braga	19	13	1	5	+15	40
4	Benfica	19	11	5	3	+16	38
5	Pacos Ferreira	19	10	5	4	+10	35
6	Guimaraes	18	9	4	5	+5	31
7	Santa Clara	19	7	4	8	-2	25
8	Moreirense	19	6	7	6	-5	25
9	Rio Ave	19	5	7	7	-6	22
10	Nacional	19	5	6	8	-6	21
11	Portimonense	19	5	4	10	-6	19
12	Belenenses	19	3	9	7	-6	18
13	Tondela	18	5	3	10	-12	18
14	Maritimo	18	5	2	11	-9	17
15	Farense	18	4	4	10	-7	16
16	Gil Vicente	19	4	4	11	-11	16
17	Boavista	19	2	9	8	-13	15
18	Famalicao	19	3	6	10	-15	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+13	23
2	Porto	10	7	2	1	+12	23
3	Benfica	10	7	2	1	+10	23
4	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+8	22
5	Pacos Ferreira	9	6	2	1	+7	20
6	Tondela	9	5	2	2	+2	17
7	Portimonense	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Moreirense	10	3	5	2	-1	14
9	Farense	10	3	3	4	+1	12
10	Rio Ave	9	3	3	3	+0	12
11	Nacional	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Guimaraes	9	4	0	5	-4	12
13	Belenenses	10	2	5	3	-1	11
14	Gil Vicente	9	2	2	5	-3	8
15	Santa Clara	9	2	2	5	-4	8
16	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	Famalicao	10	1	4	5	-10	7
18	Boavista	9	1	2	6	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Guimaraes	9	5	4	0	+9	19
3	Porto	9	5	3	1	+10	18
4	Sp Braga	10	6	0	4	+7	18
5	Santa Clara	10	5	2	3	+2	17
6	Benfica	9	4	3	2	+6	15
7	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	3	3	+3	15
8	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	Boavista	10	1	7	2	-3	10
10	Rio Ave	10	2	4	4	-6	10
11	Maritimo	9	3	0	6	-3	9
12	Nacional	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Famalicao	9	2	2	5	-5	8
14	Gil Vicente	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Belenenses	9	1	4	4	-5	7
16	Portimonense	10	1	2	7	-9	5
17	Farense	8	1	1	6	-8	4
18	Tondela	9	0	1	8	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.