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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Rio Ave

S U T T U

2–1

Full-time

Tondela

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 24%

18%

29%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

29%

35%

Both score Ø 32%

29%

35%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,6

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

6 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 15. · Tondela 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	14	3	0	+27	45
2	Porto	18	12	4	2	+22	40
3	Benfica	18	11	4	3	+16	37
4	Sp Braga	18	12	1	5	+14	37
5	Pacos Ferreira	18	10	5	3	+12	35
6	Guimaraes	17	9	4	4	+7	31
7	Santa Clara	18	7	4	7	-1	25
8	Moreirense	18	6	6	6	-5	24
9	Nacional	17	4	6	7	-6	18
10	Tondela	17	5	3	9	-11	18
11	Belenenses	18	3	8	7	-6	17
12	Maritimo	18	5	2	11	-9	17
13	Gil Vicente	17	4	4	9	-7	16
14	Portimonense	18	4	4	10	-9	16
15	Rio Ave	17	3	7	7	-9	16
16	Boavista	17	2	8	7	-12	14
17	Famalicao	18	3	5	10	-15	14
18	Farense	17	3	4	10	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	7	2	1	+10	23
2	Porto	9	7	1	1	+12	22
3	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+8	22
4	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+11	20
5	Pacos Ferreira	9	6	2	1	+7	20
6	Tondela	9	5	2	2	+2	17
7	Moreirense	9	3	4	2	-1	13
8	Farense	10	3	3	4	+1	12
9	Nacional	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	Guimaraes	8	4	0	4	-2	12
11	Portimonense	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	Belenenses	10	2	5	3	-1	11
13	Rio Ave	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Gil Vicente	8	2	2	4	-2	8
15	Santa Clara	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	Famalicao	9	1	3	5	-10	6
18	Boavista	8	1	2	5	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	8	1	0	+16	25
2	Guimaraes	9	5	4	0	+9	19
3	Porto	9	5	3	1	+10	18
4	Santa Clara	10	5	2	3	+2	17
5	Sp Braga	9	5	0	4	+6	15
6	Pacos Ferreira	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Benfica	8	4	2	2	+6	14
8	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	Boavista	9	1	6	2	-3	9
10	Maritimo	9	3	0	6	-3	9
11	Famalicao	9	2	2	5	-5	8
12	Gil Vicente	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Rio Ave	9	1	4	4	-8	7
14	Nacional	8	1	3	4	-5	6
15	Belenenses	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Portimonense	10	1	2	7	-9	5
17	Farense	7	0	1	6	-9	1
18	Tondela	8	0	1	7	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.