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Championship

Referee: K Friend

Wycombe

T U T T S

1–2

Full-time

Derby

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wycombe Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,8

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

2,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,0

This season — Championship · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 22%

14%

29%

Points per game

0,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

46%

21%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%

17 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Wycombe 24. · Derby 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	29	17	7	5	+15	58
2	Watford	30	15	9	6	+18	54
3	Brentford	27	15	8	4	+24	53
4	Reading	29	14	6	9	+8	48
5	Bournemouth	28	12	10	6	+16	46
6	Swansea	24	13	7	4	+16	46
7	Stoke	30	10	12	8	+1	42
8	Cardiff	29	11	7	11	+7	40
9	Middlesbrough	29	11	7	11	+2	40
10	Blackburn	28	11	6	11	+11	39
11	Barnsley	26	11	6	9	+1	39
12	Preston	30	12	3	15	-4	39
13	Bristol City	29	12	3	14	-10	39
14	Millwall	29	8	14	7	+1	38
15	Luton	28	10	7	11	-6	37
16	Sheffield Weds	29	9	7	13	-10	34
17	Nott'm Forest	29	8	9	12	-5	33
18	QPR	27	8	9	10	-6	33
19	Huddersfield	29	9	6	14	-9	33
20	Derby	28	8	7	13	-10	31
21	Coventry	29	7	10	12	-13	31
22	Rotherham	27	8	5	14	-5	29
23	Birmingham	29	6	10	13	-14	28
24	Wycombe	28	4	7	17	-28	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	15	11	2	2	+19	35
2	Norwich	15	9	5	1	+12	32
3	Bournemouth	14	8	3	3	+11	27
4	Reading	15	9	0	6	+6	27
5	Swansea	13	7	5	1	+10	26
6	Brentford	13	7	4	2	+11	25
7	Huddersfield	15	7	2	6	+4	23
8	Sheffield Weds	14	6	5	3	+4	23
9	Middlesbrough	14	7	2	5	+3	23
10	Bristol City	14	7	2	5	+1	23
11	Blackburn	14	6	4	4	+6	22
12	Stoke	15	6	4	5	+0	22
13	Barnsley	12	6	3	3	+3	21
14	Coventry	14	5	6	3	+0	21
15	Luton	13	5	5	3	+2	20
16	Cardiff	15	5	3	7	+4	18
17	Nott'm Forest	15	4	6	5	+0	18
18	QPR	13	4	4	5	-2	16
19	Derby	15	4	4	7	-7	16
20	Rotherham	14	4	3	7	+0	15
21	Millwall	14	2	9	3	+0	15
22	Preston	15	4	2	9	-5	14
23	Wycombe	14	2	5	7	-9	11
24	Birmingham	15	2	3	10	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	14	8	4	2	+13	28
2	Norwich	14	8	2	4	+3	26
3	Preston	15	8	1	6	+1	25
4	Millwall	15	6	5	4	+1	23
5	Cardiff	14	6	4	4	+3	22
6	Reading	14	5	6	3	+2	21
7	Swansea	11	6	2	3	+6	20
8	Stoke	15	4	8	3	+1	20
9	Bournemouth	14	4	7	3	+5	19
10	Birmingham	14	4	7	3	+1	19
11	Watford	15	4	7	4	-1	19
12	Barnsley	14	5	3	6	-2	18
13	Blackburn	14	5	2	7	+5	17
14	Middlesbrough	15	4	5	6	-1	17
15	QPR	14	4	5	5	-4	17
16	Luton	15	5	2	8	-8	17
17	Bristol City	15	5	1	9	-11	16
18	Derby	13	4	3	6	-3	15
19	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-5	15
20	Rotherham	13	4	2	7	-5	14
21	Sheffield Weds	15	3	2	10	-14	11
22	Huddersfield	14	2	4	8	-13	10
23	Coventry	15	2	4	9	-13	10
24	Wycombe	14	2	2	10	-19	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.