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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kamphuis

Utrecht

U U S S S

1–0

Full-time

Heracles

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 30%

32%

27%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

36%

77%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

64%

Average goals

2,6

3,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,4

2,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,44 xG 0,51

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 9. · Heracles 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	22	20	2	0	+60	+49.0	62
2	Feyenoord	22	16	4	2	+39	+46.1	52
3	Twente	22	13	5	4	+20	+13.0	44
4	AZ Alkmaar	22	11	6	5	+20	+12.4	39
5	Ajax	22	10	6	6	+10	+7.6	36
6	Go Ahead Eagles	21	9	6	6	+8	-4.4	33
7	Nijmegen	21	7	8	6	+4	-9.5	29
8	Sparta Rotterdam	22	8	5	9	-2	-5.6	29
9	Utrecht	22	7	8	7	-2	-7.9	29
10	Zwolle	22	7	6	9	-3	-6.1	27
11	Almere City	22	7	6	9	-15	-11.3	27
12	Heerenveen	22	7	4	11	-10	-4.7	25
13	For Sittard	22	6	6	10	-17	-0.3	24
14	Heracles	22	6	4	12	-23	-18.1	22
15	Excelsior	22	4	9	9	-10	-10.1	21
16	Waalwijk	22	5	3	14	-19	-11.4	18
17	Volendam	22	3	4	15	-30	-21.4	13
18	Vitesse	22	3	4	15	-30	-17.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	11	0	0	+28	+29.5	33
2	Feyenoord	12	8	3	1	+21	+24.9	27
3	Twente	11	8	1	2	+9	+9.9	25
4	Ajax	11	6	3	2	+12	+7.3	21
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	2	3	+13	+12.1	20
6	Go Ahead Eagles	11	5	3	3	+10	+5.0	18
7	For Sittard	11	5	3	3	+3	+8.4	18
8	Nijmegen	10	5	2	3	+8	+3.9	17
9	Heerenveen	11	5	2	4	+4	+7.1	17
10	Utrecht	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.9	14
11	Heracles	11	4	2	5	-10	-6.7	14
12	Almere City	11	3	4	4	-6	-3.7	13
13	Excelsior	11	2	6	3	-3	-0.5	12
14	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	3	5	-5	+1.1	12
15	Waalwijk	11	3	2	6	-6	-4.0	11
16	Zwolle	11	3	2	6	-6	+2.3	11
17	Vitesse	11	1	4	6	-9	-4.1	7
18	Volendam	10	2	1	7	-14	-3.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	9	2	0	+32	+19.5	29
2	Feyenoord	10	8	1	1	+18	+21.1	25
3	Twente	11	5	4	2	+11	+3.0	19
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	4	2	+7	+0.3	19
5	Sparta Rotterdam	11	5	2	4	+3	-6.8	17
6	Zwolle	11	4	4	3	+3	-8.4	16
7	Utrecht	11	4	3	4	-1	-6.0	15
8	Ajax	11	4	3	4	-2	+0.2	15
9	Go Ahead Eagles	10	4	3	3	-2	-9.4	15
10	Almere City	11	4	2	5	-9	-7.6	14
11	Nijmegen	11	2	6	3	-4	-13.4	12
12	Excelsior	11	2	3	6	-7	-9.6	9
13	Heracles	11	2	2	7	-13	-11.4	8
14	Heerenveen	11	2	2	7	-14	-11.9	8
15	Waalwijk	11	2	1	8	-13	-7.3	7
16	Volendam	12	1	3	8	-16	-17.9	6
17	For Sittard	11	1	3	7	-20	-8.7	6
18	Vitesse	11	2	0	9	-21	-13.1	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.