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Ligue 1

Referee: Jeremie Pignard

Strasbourg

S S T S S

1–2

Full-time

Marseille

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Strasbourg Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 70%

80%

60%

Points per game

2,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

40%

20%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,6

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,36 xG 2,02

40% Possession 60%

9 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Strasbourg 4. · Marseille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	0	1	+6	+1.9	12
2	Paris SG	5	4	0	1	+6	+2.7	12
3	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.7	12
4	Strasbourg	5	4	0	1	+3	+2.8	12
5	Lille	5	3	1	1	+5	+3.0	10
6	Marseille	5	3	0	2	+6	+2.3	9
7	Lens	5	3	0	2	+3	+3.8	9
8	Rennes	5	2	2	1	-1	-3.2	8
9	Toulouse	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.1	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.5	6
11	Paris FC	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.2	6
12	Nice	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.0	6
13	Angers	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.9	5
14	Brest	5	1	1	3	-2	-2.1	4
15	Le Havre	5	1	1	3	-2	+2.1	4
16	Nantes	5	1	1	3	-2	-3.1	4
17	Lorient	5	1	1	3	-7	-2.5	4
18	Metz	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.3	9
2	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.8	9
3	Lyon	3	3	0	0	+5	+5.1	9
4	Lens	3	2	0	1	+4	+4.5	6
5	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
6	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
7	Nice	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.6	6
8	Lille	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.1	6
9	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.0	6
10	Auxerre	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.3	6
11	Brest	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.1	4
12	Le Havre	3	1	1	1	+1	+4.0	4
13	Angers	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
14	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
15	Paris FC	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.6	3
16	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	3
17	Lorient	2	1	0	1	-2	+1.0	3
18	Metz	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.2	6
2	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.8	6
3	Lille	3	1	1	1	+3	-0.0	4
4	Monaco	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
5	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
6	Toulouse	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.0	3
7	Lens	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.7	3
8	Paris FC	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.8	3
9	Rennes	3	0	2	1	-4	-3.5	2
10	Angers	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.7	1
11	Lorient	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.4	1
12	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
13	Nantes	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
14	Le Havre	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
15	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
16	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.2	0
17	Nice	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.6	0
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.