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Champions League
Referee: I Peljto
Real Madrid
S S S S S
2–1
Full-time
Marseille
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
100%
67%
Points per game
3,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,3
3,8
Scored
2,0
2,7
Conceded
0,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,65 xG 0,73
43% Possession 57%
28 Shots 15
15 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 13
9 Corners 4
1 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0

Match report

Real Madrid Marseille
D. Carvajal 🔁
↦ T. Alexander-Arnold
5′
22′
⚽ T. Weah 0–1
M. Greenwood
1–1 K. Mbappe ⚽
29′
Aurélien Tchouaméni 🟨
35′
Half-time 1–1
46′
🟨 Benjamin Pavard
Éder Militão 🟨
54′
Vinicius Junior 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
63′
B. Diaz 🔁
↦ F. Mastantuono
63′
66′
🔁 I. Paixao
↦ M. O'Riley
66′
🔁 A. Vermeeren
↦ G. Kondogbia
Daniel Carvajal ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
71′
Daniel Carvajal 🟥
72′
R. Asencio 🔁
↦ A. Guler
73′
75′
🟨 Facundo Medina
78′
🔁 A. Gouiri
↦ T. Weah
78′
🔁 M. Murillo
↦ Emerson
2–1 K. Mbappe ⚽
81′
87′
🔁 C. Egan-Riley
↦ B. Pavard
Álvaro Carreras 🟨
97′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
1 T. Courtois G
12 T. Alexander-Arnold D
3 Eder Militao D
24 D. Huijsen D
18 A. Carreras D
8 F. Valverde M
14 A. Tchouameni M
30 F. Mastantuono M
15 A. Guler M
11 Rodrygo M
10 K. Mbappe F
Bench (12)
13 A. Lunin
26 Fran
2 D. Carvajal
4 D. Alaba
5 J. Bellingham
6 E. Camavinga
7 Vinicius Junior
16 G. Garcia
17 R. Asencio
19 D. Ceballos
20 F. Garcia
21 B. Diaz

Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa

Marseille

4-2-3-1
1 G. Rulli G
28 B. Pavard D
5 L. Balerdi D
32 F. Medina D
33 Emerson D
19 G. Kondogbia M
23 P. Hojbjerg M
10 M. Greenwood M
17 M. O'Riley M
22 T. Weah M
97 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (11)
12 J. De Lange
40 J. Van Neck
4 C. Egan-Riley
8 A. Gomes
9 A. Gouiri
14 I. Paixao
18 A. Vermeeren
26 B. Nadir
34 R. Vaz
50 D. Bakola
62 M. Murillo

Coach: Habib Beye

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Peljto · 38 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.