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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

St Etienne

S U T T T

1–0

Full-time

Lille

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Etienne Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,0

1,7

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,25 xG 1,24

29% Possession 71%

10 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Etienne 18. · Lille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+11	+7.0	9
2	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+6	+3.2	7
3	Nantes	3	2	1	0	+4	-0.4	7
4	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
5	Lens	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.2	7
6	Lille	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.1	6
7	Le Havre	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.8	6
8	Nice	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.1	4
9	Strasbourg	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.1	4
10	Reims	3	1	1	1	-1	-3.7	4
11	Rennes	3	1	0	2	+0	-0.2	3
12	Brest	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.2	3
13	Auxerre	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.3	3
14	Lyon	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.0	3
15	Toulouse	3	0	2	1	-2	+1.1	2
16	Montpellier	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.2	1
17	Angers	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.0	0
18	St Etienne	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
2	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+6	+3.2	3
3	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.0	3
4	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
5	Nantes	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Lens	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.1	3
7	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
8	Brest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
9	Lille	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
10	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.0	3
11	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.5	3
12	Reims	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
13	Marseille	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.3	1
14	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
15	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
16	Toulouse	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.4	1
17	St Etienne	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
18	Angers	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.9	6
2	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.9	6
3	Nantes	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
4	Lens	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.1	4
5	Nice	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.4	3
6	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
7	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.0	3
8	Le Havre	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
9	Reims	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
10	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
11	Strasbourg	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
12	Angers	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
13	Brest	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.1	0
14	Rennes	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
15	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.0	0
16	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0
17	St Etienne	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.5	0
18	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.