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Ligue 1
Referee: A Delerue
Lille
U S U S T
1–5
Full-time
Paris SG
S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,3
Scored
1,5
1,8
Conceded
1,2
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,3
This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 55%
36%
73%
Points per game
1,5
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
55%
55%
Both score Ø 66%
73%
59%
Average goals
2,7
2,9
Scored
1,4
2,1
Conceded
1,4
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

41% Possession 59%
10 Shots 18
5 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 3
3 Offside 0
19 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lille 11. · Paris SG 1. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 22 16 5 1 +28 53
2 Nice 23 13 4 6 +17 43
3 Marseille 23 12 7 4 +16 43
4 Strasbourg 23 11 5 7 +16 38
5 Rennes 23 11 4 8 +22 37
6 Monaco 23 10 6 7 +11 36
7 Lyon 23 9 8 6 +1 35
8 Montpellier 23 10 4 9 +5 34
9 Lens 23 9 6 8 +3 33
10 Nantes 23 9 5 9 +2 32
11 Lille 22 8 8 6 +0 32
12 Angers 23 7 8 8 -4 29
13 Brest 23 7 7 9 -7 28
14 Reims 23 6 9 8 +0 27
15 Clermont 23 6 6 11 -16 24
16 Troyes 23 5 6 12 -11 21
17 Lorient 23 4 8 11 -18 20
18 Metz 23 4 8 11 -19 20
19 Bordeaux 23 4 8 11 -24 20
20 St Etienne 23 4 6 13 -22 18

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

29. Oct -21 Paris SG – Lille 2–1 3. Apr -21 Paris SG – Lille 0–1 20. Dec -20 Lille – Paris SG 0–0 26. Jan -20 Lille – Paris SG 0–2 22. Nov -19 Paris SG – Lille 2–0

Match report

Lille Paris SG
10′
⚽ Danilo Pereira 0–1
1–1 S. Botman ⚽
H. Ben Arfa
28′
32′
⚽ P. Kimpembe 1–2
L. Messi
38′
⚽ L. Messi 1–3
45′
🔁 J. Draxler
↦ Á. Di María
Half-time 1–3
46′
🟨 Leandro Paredes
51′
⚽ Danilo Pereira 1–4
L. Paredes
67′
⚽ K. Mbappé 1–5
M. Verratti
D. Bradarić 🔁
↦ T. Weah
70′
A. Gomes 🔁
↦ H. Ben Arfa
70′
Zeki Çelik 🟨
75′
78′
🔁 T. Kehrer
↦ P. Kimpembe
Domagoj Bradarić 🟨
83′
E. Zhegrova 🔁
↦ J. Bamba
85′
85′
🔁 X. Simons
↦ L. Paredes
Full-time 1–5

Line-ups

Lille

4-4-2
1 I. Grbić G
6 José Fonte D
2 Z. Çelik D
5 G. Gudmundsson D
4 S. Botman D
11 H. Ben Arfa F
21 B. André M
24 A. Onana M
7 J. Bamba M
22 T. Weah M
9 J. David F
Bench (8)
29 D. Bradarić
20 A. Gomes
23 E. Zhegrova
30 Léo Jardim
8 Xeka
26 J. Pied
34 U. Raghouber
3 Tiago Djaló

Coach: J. Gourvennec

Paris SG

4-3-3
50 G. Donnarumma G
5 Marquinhos D
3 P. Kimpembe D
2 A. Hakimi D
25 Nuno Mendes D
11 Á. Di María F
6 M. Verratti M
15 Danilo Pereira M
8 L. Paredes M
30 L. Messi F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (9)
23 J. Draxler
24 T. Kehrer
34 X. Simons
17 C. Dagba
1 K. Navas
20 L. Kurzawa
28 E. Ebimbe
38 E. Michut
14 Juan Bernat

Coach: M. Pochettino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,01
🔒
U
3,74
🔒
B ✓
1,88
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,78
🔒
U2,5
2,05
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Delerue · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.