Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Darmstadt
Hamburg
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–3
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Darmstadt
|
20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | +23 | 39 |
| 2 |
St Pauli
|
21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | +13 | 38 |
| 3 |
Werder Bremen
|
21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | +12 | 38 |
| 4 |
Schalke 04
|
21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +17 | 37 |
| 5 |
Heidenheim
|
21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +2 | 37 |
| 6 |
Hamburg
|
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | +14 | 34 |
| 7 |
Nurnberg
|
21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | +1 | 33 |
| 8 |
Paderborn
|
21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | +10 | 31 |
| 9 |
Regensburg
|
21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | +8 | 31 |
| 10 |
Karlsruhe
|
20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 26 |
| 11 |
Holstein Kiel
|
20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | -6 | 25 |
| 12 |
Dresden
|
20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -5 | 24 |
| 13 |
Hannover
|
21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | -14 | 24 |
| 14 |
Hansa Rostock
|
20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -11 | 21 |
| 15 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf
|
20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 20 |
| 16 |
Sandhausen
|
20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -17 | 20 |
| 17 |
Erzgebirge Aue
|
21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -22 | 15 |
| 18 | Ingolstadt | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -21 | 13 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Darmstadt
Darmstadt
Karlsruhe
Regensburg
Darmstadt
Paderborn
Darmstadt
Darmstadt
Fortuna Dusseldorf
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.