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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Fiorentina

S S U S T

1–0

Full-time

Lazio

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 29%

23%

35%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

58%

26%

Both score Ø 46%

65%

26%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,61 xG 1,33

34% Possession 66%

8 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 6

10 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 16. · Lazio 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	32	24	3	5	+46	+32.3	75
2	Napoli	32	20	6	6	+17	+11.7	66
3	Milan	32	18	9	5	+20	+17.2	63
4	Juventus	32	17	9	6	+26	+29.0	60
5	Como	32	16	10	6	+30	+23.7	58
6	Roma	32	18	3	11	+17	+6.7	57
7	Atalanta	32	14	11	7	+16	+14.8	53
8	Bologna	32	14	6	12	+5	+1.6	48
9	Lazio	31	11	11	9	+3	-6.8	44
10	Udinese	32	12	7	13	-4	-10.6	43
11	Sassuolo	32	12	6	14	-4	-14.3	42
12	Torino	32	11	6	15	-17	-7.0	39
13	Genoa	32	9	9	14	-7	-0.1	36
14	Parma	32	8	12	12	-17	-19.0	36
15	Cagliari	32	8	9	15	-11	-14.3	33
16	Fiorentina	31	7	11	13	-8	+6.2	32
17	Cremonese	32	6	9	17	-21	-19.8	27
18	Lecce	32	7	6	19	-24	-23.9	27
19	Verona	32	3	9	20	-32	-8.2	18
20	Pisa	32	2	12	18	-35	-19.4	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	12	2	2	+29	+22.5	38
2	Napoli	15	11	4	0	+13	+1.7	37
3	Roma	16	11	2	3	+17	+9.7	35
4	Juventus	16	9	6	1	+19	+19.1	33
5	Como	17	9	5	3	+19	+18.8	32
6	Atalanta	17	9	5	3	+11	+15.1	32
7	Milan	16	9	4	3	+6	+10.5	31
8	Lazio	16	7	5	4	+4	+0.6	26
9	Torino	16	7	2	7	-3	-4.4	23
10	Sassuolo	16	7	2	7	-3	-9.1	23
11	Genoa	17	6	4	7	-1	+3.2	22
12	Bologna	16	6	2	8	-2	+4.1	20
13	Udinese	16	5	5	6	-3	-2.1	20
14	Cagliari	16	5	4	7	-1	-5.4	19
15	Lecce	16	4	4	8	-11	-5.8	16
16	Fiorentina	15	3	6	6	-1	+9.6	15
17	Parma	16	3	6	7	-10	-9.2	15
18	Cremonese	15	2	6	7	-10	-4.2	12
19	Pisa	16	2	4	10	-12	-5.6	10
20	Verona	15	1	4	10	-12	-2.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	12	1	3	+17	+9.8	37
2	Milan	16	9	5	2	+14	+6.8	32
3	Napoli	17	9	2	6	+4	+10.0	29
4	Bologna	16	8	4	4	+7	-2.5	28
5	Juventus	16	8	3	5	+7	+9.9	27
6	Como	15	7	5	3	+11	+4.9	26
7	Udinese	16	7	2	7	-1	-8.6	23
8	Roma	16	7	1	8	+0	-3.1	22
9	Atalanta	15	5	6	4	+5	-0.3	21
10	Parma	16	5	6	5	-7	-9.8	21
11	Sassuolo	16	5	4	7	-1	-5.1	19
12	Lazio	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.4	18
13	Fiorentina	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.4	17
14	Torino	16	4	4	8	-14	-2.6	16
15	Cremonese	17	4	3	10	-11	-15.6	15
16	Genoa	15	3	5	7	-6	-3.4	14
17	Cagliari	16	3	5	8	-10	-8.9	14
18	Lecce	16	3	2	11	-13	-18.0	11
19	Verona	17	2	5	10	-20	-6.2	11
20	Pisa	16	0	8	8	-23	-13.8	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.