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Serie A

Referee: R Abisso

Parma

U T U S T

2–3

Full-time

Udinese

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Udinese

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,80 xG 2,66

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Parma 12. · Udinese 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	3	0	1	+5	+2.3	9
2	Inter	4	2	2	0	+6	+3.4	8
3	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+6	+2.2	8
4	Torino	4	2	2	0	+2	-2.8	8
5	Udinese	3	2	1	0	+2	-3.4	7
6	Verona	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
7	Empoli	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.0	6
8	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.7	6
9	Milan	4	1	2	1	+3	+2.6	5
10	Genoa	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.6	5
11	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.0	4
12	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.4	4
13	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
14	Fiorentina	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.3	3
15	Monza	4	0	3	1	-1	-3.6	3
16	Roma	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.1	3
17	Bologna	4	0	3	1	-3	+0.9	3
18	Como	4	0	2	2	-4	+0.4	2
19	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-5	-1.4	2
20	Venezia	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.1	6
2	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
3	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.2	6
4	Milan	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.1	4
5	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.1	4
6	Lazio	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.5	4
7	Parma	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
8	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.9	4
9	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
10	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
11	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-3	-0.3	3
12	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.0	2
13	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.7	2
14	Empoli	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.3	2
15	Genoa	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.8	2
16	Cagliari	3	0	2	1	-4	-1.6	2
17	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
18	Monza	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
19	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
20	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.1	4
2	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
3	Empoli	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
4	Verona	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.0	3
5	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
6	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Roma	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
8	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.0	3
9	Inter	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.3	2
10	Monza	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.9	2
11	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
12	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.8	1
13	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.6	1
14	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.0	1
15	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
16	Como	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.4	1
17	Venezia	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.0	1
18	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
19	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
20	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.