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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Bologna

U T U T U

0–0

Full-time

Roma

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 43%

35%

50%

Points per game

1,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

50%

38%

Both score Ø 53%

62%

44%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,41 xG 1,19

72% Possession 28%

12 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 6

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bologna 12. · Roma 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	35	26	5	4	+45	+11.3	83
2	Inter	35	21	3	11	+29	+17.9	66
3	Juventus	34	20	6	8	+24	+6.8	66
4	Lazio	35	19	8	8	+26	+2.4	65
5	Milan	35	17	10	8	+14	+2.6	61
6	Atalanta	35	17	7	11	+14	+3.7	58
7	Roma	34	17	7	10	+12	+6.8	58
8	Fiorentina	35	13	10	12	+7	+7.4	49
9	Monza	35	13	10	12	-1	-3.0	49
10	Torino	35	13	10	12	-2	+4.2	49
11	Udinese	35	11	13	11	+2	-4.7	46
12	Bologna	34	12	10	12	-1	-1.8	46
13	Sassuolo	35	12	8	15	-11	+3.9	44
14	Salernitana	35	8	14	13	-13	-13.0	38
15	Empoli	34	9	11	14	-13	-7.6	38
16	Lecce	35	7	11	17	-13	+0.5	32
17	Verona	34	7	8	19	-24	-7.5	29
18	Spezia	34	6	11	17	-26	-6.0	29
19	Cremonese	34	4	12	18	-28	-10.1	24
20	Sampdoria	34	3	8	23	-41	-13.7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	17	12	3	2	+22	+4.4	39
2	Inter	18	13	0	5	+22	+8.6	39
3	Napoli	17	12	3	2	+21	+4.8	39
4	Milan	17	11	4	2	+15	+4.5	37
5	Lazio	18	10	4	4	+13	+1.6	34
6	Roma	17	10	2	5	+12	+2.1	32
7	Fiorentina	18	8	6	4	+7	+9.1	30
8	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+10	-0.5	28
9	Sassuolo	17	8	4	5	+4	+1.5	28
10	Udinese	17	6	9	2	+12	+3.8	27
11	Atalanta	17	8	3	6	+7	+5.2	27
12	Monza	18	7	5	6	+4	+1.1	26
13	Empoli	17	7	4	6	-2	-0.9	25
14	Salernitana	18	6	6	6	+3	-6.1	24
15	Torino	17	5	6	6	-3	+2.1	21
16	Verona	18	6	2	10	-12	-5.2	20
17	Spezia	17	4	7	6	-8	-4.9	19
18	Lecce	17	3	7	7	-5	+2.7	16
19	Cremonese	17	3	4	10	-14	-4.6	13
20	Sampdoria	17	1	5	11	-16	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	18	14	2	2	+24	+6.5	44
2	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+13	+0.8	31
3	Atalanta	18	9	4	5	+7	-1.5	31
4	Torino	18	8	4	6	+1	+2.0	28
5	Inter	17	8	3	6	+7	+9.3	27
6	Juventus	17	8	3	6	+2	+2.4	27
7	Roma	17	7	5	5	+0	+4.8	26
8	Milan	18	6	6	6	-1	-1.9	24
9	Monza	17	6	5	6	-5	-4.1	23
10	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	+0	-1.7	19
11	Udinese	18	5	4	9	-10	-8.5	19
12	Bologna	17	5	3	9	-11	-1.2	18
13	Lecce	18	4	4	10	-8	-2.3	16
14	Sassuolo	18	4	4	10	-15	+2.4	16
15	Salernitana	17	2	8	7	-16	-6.9	14
16	Empoli	17	2	7	8	-11	-6.7	13
17	Cremonese	17	1	8	8	-14	-5.5	11
18	Spezia	17	2	4	11	-18	-1.1	10
19	Verona	16	1	6	9	-12	-2.3	9
20	Sampdoria	17	2	3	12	-25	-11.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.