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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Monza

T U S S S

1–1

Full-time

Roma

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 46%

38%

53%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

47%

41%

Both score Ø 46%

47%

44%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,49 xG 0,86

59% Possession 41%

8 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Monza 11. · Roma 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	32	25	4	3	+46	+10.5	79
2	Juventus	33	19	6	8	+22	+6.9	63
3	Lazio	32	18	7	7	+26	+0.7	61
4	Atalanta	33	17	7	9	+17	+3.0	58
5	Inter	32	18	3	11	+19	+16.9	57
6	Milan	32	16	9	7	+14	+3.4	57
7	Roma	32	17	6	9	+14	+6.2	57
8	Fiorentina	33	12	10	11	+6	+6.3	46
9	Bologna	32	12	9	11	+1	-3.0	45
10	Torino	33	12	9	12	-3	+2.8	45
11	Monza	32	12	8	12	-3	-2.8	44
12	Sassuolo	32	12	7	13	-7	+4.2	43
13	Udinese	32	10	12	10	+2	-2.8	42
14	Salernitana	33	7	14	12	-13	-10.7	35
15	Empoli	32	7	11	14	-16	-8.2	32
16	Lecce	33	7	10	16	-12	+0.7	31
17	Verona	31	6	8	17	-18	-4.0	26
18	Spezia	32	5	11	16	-26	-7.2	26
19	Cremonese	32	3	11	18	-30	-9.3	20
20	Sampdoria	33	3	8	22	-39	-13.5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	17	12	3	2	+22	+4.4	39
2	Napoli	16	11	3	2	+20	+4.0	36
3	Inter	17	12	0	5	+20	+9.5	36
4	Milan	15	10	3	2	+13	+4.5	33
5	Roma	16	10	2	4	+14	+1.8	32
6	Lazio	16	9	3	4	+11	+0.3	30
7	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+10	-0.5	28
8	Atalanta	16	8	3	5	+9	+5.1	27
9	Fiorentina	17	7	6	4	+5	+7.2	27
10	Sassuolo	16	8	3	5	+4	+1.7	27
11	Udinese	15	5	8	2	+10	+3.8	23
12	Monza	16	6	4	6	+2	+1.3	22
13	Salernitana	17	5	6	6	+2	-5.5	21
14	Torino	16	5	5	6	-3	+2.1	20
15	Verona	16	6	2	8	-5	-1.7	20
16	Empoli	15	5	4	6	-5	-1.4	19
17	Lecce	16	3	7	6	-4	+2.7	16
18	Spezia	16	3	7	6	-10	-5.7	16
19	Cremonese	16	2	4	10	-16	-4.2	10
20	Sampdoria	17	1	5	11	-16	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	16	14	1	1	+26	+6.5	43
2	Lazio	16	9	4	3	+15	+0.5	31
3	Atalanta	17	9	4	4	+8	-2.1	31
4	Torino	17	7	4	6	+0	+0.7	25
5	Roma	16	7	4	5	+0	+4.4	25
6	Milan	17	6	6	5	+1	-1.2	24
7	Juventus	16	7	3	6	+0	+2.5	24
8	Monza	16	6	4	6	-5	-4.1	22
9	Inter	15	6	3	6	-1	+7.4	21
10	Fiorentina	16	5	4	7	+1	-0.9	19
11	Udinese	17	5	4	8	-8	-6.6	19
12	Bologna	15	5	2	8	-9	-2.5	17
13	Sassuolo	16	4	4	8	-11	+2.5	16
14	Lecce	17	4	3	10	-8	-2.0	15
15	Salernitana	16	2	8	6	-15	-5.2	14
16	Empoli	17	2	7	8	-11	-6.7	13
17	Cremonese	16	1	7	8	-14	-5.1	10
18	Spezia	16	2	4	10	-16	-1.5	10
19	Sampdoria	16	2	3	11	-23	-11.2	9
20	Verona	15	0	6	9	-13	-2.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.