Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Ponferradina
Sociedad B
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Eibar
|
27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | +12 | 53 |
| 2 |
Almeria
|
27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | +21 | 52 |
| 3 |
Tenerife
|
27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | +18 | 49 |
| 4 |
Valladolid
|
27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | +12 | 49 |
| 5 |
Girona
|
27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | +8 | 42 |
| 6 |
Ponferradina
|
26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | +5 | 41 |
| 7 |
Las Palmas
|
27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | +2 | 39 |
| 8 |
Cartagena
|
27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | -2 | 39 |
| 9 |
Burgos
|
27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | +6 | 38 |
| 10 |
Ibiza
|
27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | +5 | 38 |
| 11 |
Oviedo
|
27 | 8 | 14 | 5 | +4 | 38 |
| 12 |
Lugo
|
27 | 7 | 15 | 5 | +3 | 36 |
| 13 |
Sp Gijon
|
27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | -1 | 35 |
| 14 |
Huesca
|
27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | +6 | 34 |
| 15 |
Leganes
|
27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | -3 | 33 |
| 16 |
Malaga
|
27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -16 | 32 |
| 17 |
Zaragoza
|
27 | 5 | 15 | 7 | -7 | 30 |
| 18 |
Mirandes
|
27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -9 | 30 |
| 19 |
Amorebieta
|
27 | 4 | 14 | 9 | -7 | 26 |
| 20 |
Fuenlabrada
|
27 | 4 | 13 | 10 | -11 | 25 |
| 21 |
Sociedad B
|
26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -13 | 20 |
| 22 |
Alcorcon
|
27 | 2 | 6 | 19 | -33 | 12 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Girona
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Tenerife
Huesca
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Zaragoza
Oviedo
Ponferradina
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.