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Serie A
Referee: M Mariani
Spezia
T U T U S
1–2
Full-time
Verona
U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Verona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,0
2,8
Scored
0,7
1,2
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,5
This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 27%
21%
32%
Points per game
0,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
58%
68%
Both score Ø 69%
58%
79%
Average goals
3,1
3,5
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
2,1
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,1
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%
9 Shots 22
3 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 7
0 Offside 4
14 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Spezia 17. · Verona 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 19 14 4 1 +34 46
2 Milan 19 13 3 3 +18 42
3 Napoli 19 12 3 4 +21 39
4 Atalanta 19 11 5 3 +14 38
5 Juventus 19 10 4 5 +10 34
6 Roma 19 10 2 7 +10 32
7 Fiorentina 19 10 2 7 +9 32
8 Lazio 19 9 4 6 +5 31
9 Empoli 19 8 3 8 -4 27
10 Bologna 19 8 3 8 -4 27
11 Torino 19 7 4 8 +4 25
12 Verona 19 6 6 7 +2 24
13 Sassuolo 19 6 6 7 -1 24
14 Udinese 18 4 8 6 -2 20
15 Sampdoria 20 5 5 10 -9 20
16 Venezia 19 4 5 10 -16 17
17 Spezia 19 4 4 11 -20 16
18 Cagliari 20 2 7 11 -22 13
19 Genoa 19 1 8 10 -18 11
20 Salernitana 18 2 2 14 -31 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Spezia Verona
Petar Zovko 🟨
-5′
29′
🟨 Miguel Veloso
45′
🟨 Nicolò Casale
Half-time 0–0
D. Verde 🔁
↦ D. Strelec
51′
59′
G. Caprari 0–1
G. Simeone
J. Antiste 🔁
↦ A. Reca
70′
70′
G. Caprari 0–2
K. Lasagna
71′
🔁 N. Kalinić
↦ G. Simeone
71′
🔁 A. Barák
↦ K. Lasagna
Daniele Verde 🟨
75′
Kevin Agudelo 🟨
78′
82′
🔁 F. Depaoli
↦ A. Tameze
1–2 M. Erlić
85′
Kevin Agudelo 🟥
87′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Spezia

4-1-4-1
94 I. Provedel G
43 D. Nikolaou D
20 S. Bastoni M
27 K. Amian D
28 M. Erlić D
14 J. Kiwior M
13 A. Reca D
25 G. Maggiore M
33 K. Agudelo F
11 E. Gyasi M
44 D. Strelec M
Bench (11)
10 D. Verde
22 J. Antiste
6 M. Bourabia
1 J. Zoet
77 N. Bertola
21 Salvador Ferrer
29 E. Salcedo
31 A. Sher
40 P. Zovko
17 S. Podgoreanu
7 J. Sala

Coach: T. Motta

Verona

3-4-2-1
1 I. Pandur G
21 K. Günter D
17 F. Ceccherini D
16 N. Casale D
4 Miguel Veloso M
8 D. Lazović M
61 A. Tameze M
14 I. Ilić M
10 G. Caprari F
99 G. Simeone F
11 K. Lasagna F
Bench (9)
9 N. Kalinić
7 A. Barák
29 F. Depaoli
94 G. Toniolo
20 K. Rüegg
26 C. Pierobon
31 B. Šutalo
80 K. Kivila
97 F. Terracciano

Coach: I. Tudor

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,56
U
3,54
B ✓
2,07
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,79
U2,5
2,04
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.