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Serie A
Referee: R Abisso
Salernitana
T S S S T
0–4
Full-time
Roma
S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salernitana Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,5
Scored
2,0
2,2
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,8
This season — Serie A · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
5,0
4,0
Scored
2,0
3,0
Conceded
3,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

20% Possession 80%
4 Shots 21
0 Shots on target 10
1 Blocked shots 11
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
1 Corners 10
2 Offside 3
12 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Salernitana 16. · Roma 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Lazio 2 2 0 0 +7 6
2 Inter 2 2 0 0 +6 6
3 Napoli 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 Udinese 2 1 1 0 +3 4
5 Bologna 2 1 1 0 +1 4
6 Sassuolo 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Atalanta 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Roma 1 1 0 0 +2 3
9 Milan 1 1 0 0 +1 3
10 Fiorentina 2 1 0 1 -1 3
11 Empoli 2 1 0 1 -1 3
12 Cagliari 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Juventus 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 Sampdoria 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 Spezia 2 0 1 1 -5 1
16 Salernitana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
17 Torino 2 0 0 2 -2 0
18 Verona 2 0 0 2 -3 0
19 Genoa 2 0 0 2 -5 0
20 Venezia 2 0 0 2 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Salernitana Roma
Federico Bonazzoli 🟨
35′
40′
🟨 Carles Pérez
Half-time 0–1
48′
L. Pellegrini 0–1
M. Viña
Ramzi Aya 🟨
50′
52′
J. Veretout 0–2
H. Mkhitaryan
S. Nwankwo 🔁
↦ L. Coulibaly
56′
67′
🟨 Henrikh Mkhitaryan
N. Zortea 🔁
↦ W. Kechrida
67′
L. Capezzi 🔁
↦ J. Obi
68′
69′
T. Abraham 0–3
Carles Pérez
70′
🔁 S. El Shaarawy
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
78′
🔁 E. Shomurodov
↦ Carles Pérez
79′
L. Pellegrini 0–4
J. Veretout
82′
🔁 R. Calafiori
↦ M. Viña
83′
🔁 A. Diawara
↦ J. Veretout
83′
🔁 Borja Mayoral
↦ T. Abraham
J. Kristoffersen 🔁
↦ F. Bonazzoli
84′
A. Schiavone 🔁
↦ P. Jaroszyński
84′
Full-time 0–4

Line-ups

Salernitana

5-4-1
72 V. Belec G
13 R. Aya D
23 N. Gyömbér D
4 P. Jaroszyński D
3 M. Ruggeri D
14 F. Di Tacchio M
22 J. Obi M
18 L. Coulibaly M
24 W. Kechrida D
2 M. Coulibaly M
9 F. Bonazzoli F
Bench (9)
25 S. Nwankwo
21 N. Zortea
28 L. Capezzi
19 J. Kristoffersen
8 A. Schiavone
1 V. Fiorillo
20 G. Kastanos
15 C. Iannone
12 Antonio Russo

Coach: F. Castori

Roma

4-2-3-1
1 Rui Patrício G
2 R. Karsdorp D
23 G. Mancini D
5 M. Viña D
3 Ibañez D
77 H. Mkhitaryan M
17 J. Veretout M
4 B. Cristante M
7 L. Pellegrini M
11 Carles Pérez M
9 T. Abraham F
Bench (12)
92 S. El Shaarawy
14 E. Shomurodov
13 R. Calafiori
42 A. Diawara
21 Borja Mayoral
87 Daniel Fuzato
52 E. Bove
59 N. Zalewski
55 E. Darboe
63 P. Boer
19 B. Reynolds
24 M. Kumbulla

Coach: José Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,55
U
4,24
B ✓
1,60
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,59
U2,5
2,39
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

R Abisso · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.