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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Inter

U U S S S

3–1

Full-time

Roma

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 62%

74%

49%

Points per game

2,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

60%

66%

Both score Ø 56%

60%

51%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

2,3

1,8

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

4 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 1. · Roma 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	35	26	7	2	+49	85
2	Napoli	36	23	4	9	+43	73
3	Atalanta	35	21	9	5	+42	72
4	Milan	35	22	6	7	+24	72
5	Juventus	35	20	9	6	+33	69
6	Lazio	34	20	4	10	+9	64
7	Roma	35	17	7	11	+10	58
8	Sassuolo	35	15	11	9	+6	56
9	Sampdoria	35	13	6	16	-6	45
10	Verona	35	11	10	14	-1	43
11	Bologna	35	10	10	15	-9	40
12	Udinese	36	10	10	16	-11	40
13	Fiorentina	36	9	12	15	-10	39
14	Genoa	35	8	12	15	-13	36
15	Cagliari	36	9	9	18	-15	36
16	Torino	34	7	14	13	-9	35
17	Spezia	35	8	10	17	-23	34
18	Benevento	35	7	10	18	-33	31
19	Parma	35	3	11	21	-38	20
20	Crotone	35	5	3	27	-48	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	17	15	1	1	+29	46
2	Juventus	18	13	2	3	+21	41
3	Roma	18	12	4	2	+22	40
4	Napoli	18	12	3	3	+30	39
5	Lazio	17	12	2	3	+12	38
6	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+25	36
7	Milan	18	8	5	5	+7	29
8	Bologna	17	7	5	5	+5	26
9	Sassuolo	17	6	8	3	+4	26
10	Sampdoria	17	8	2	7	+3	26
11	Fiorentina	18	6	6	6	+2	24
12	Verona	18	6	5	7	+0	23
13	Genoa	18	5	7	6	+0	22
14	Udinese	18	5	4	9	-4	19
15	Cagliari	18	5	4	9	-9	19
16	Spezia	17	4	6	7	-8	18
17	Torino	17	3	8	6	-4	17
18	Crotone	17	4	1	12	-13	13
19	Benevento	18	2	6	10	-20	12
20	Parma	18	2	5	11	-21	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	17	14	1	2	+17	43
2	Inter	18	11	6	1	+20	39
3	Atalanta	18	10	6	2	+17	36
4	Napoli	18	11	1	6	+13	34
5	Sassuolo	18	9	3	6	+2	30
6	Juventus	17	7	7	3	+12	28
7	Lazio	17	8	2	7	-3	26
8	Udinese	18	5	6	7	-7	21
9	Verona	17	5	5	7	-1	20
10	Sampdoria	18	5	4	9	-9	19
11	Benevento	17	5	4	8	-13	19
12	Torino	17	4	6	7	-5	18
13	Roma	17	5	3	9	-12	18
14	Cagliari	18	4	5	9	-6	17
15	Spezia	18	4	4	10	-15	16
16	Fiorentina	18	3	6	9	-12	15
17	Genoa	17	3	5	9	-13	14
18	Bologna	18	3	5	10	-14	14
19	Parma	17	1	6	10	-17	9
20	Crotone	18	1	2	15	-35	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.