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La Liga
Referee: Mario Melero
Osasuna
S S S T U
2–0
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Osasuna Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
1,7
2,2
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 35/35 matches
Win Ø 43%
29%
57%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
49%
43%
Both score Ø 56%
66%
46%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,58 xG 1,36
35% Possession 65%
9 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 0
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 4
12 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Osasuna 10. · Ath Madrid 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 35 26 4 5 +59 +46.2 82
2 Real Madrid 36 24 6 6 +36 +28.4 78
3 Ath Madrid 35 20 10 5 +33 +25.2 70
4 Ath Bilbao 35 17 13 5 +25 +15.9 64
5 Villarreal 36 18 10 8 +17 +21.1 64
6 Betis 35 16 10 9 +10 +8.8 58
7 Celta 36 15 7 14 +2 +9.6 52
8 Vallecano 35 12 11 12 -5 -3.7 47
9 Mallorca 36 13 8 15 -8 -5.9 47
10 Osasuna 35 10 15 10 -8 -7.8 45
11 Valencia 36 11 12 13 -9 -7.5 45
12 Sociedad 36 12 7 17 -10 +1.2 43
13 Sevilla 36 10 11 15 -9 -4.2 41
14 Girona 36 11 8 17 -11 -4.8 41
15 Getafe 35 10 9 16 -3 -7.6 39
16 Espanol 35 10 9 16 -9 -21.9 39
17 Alaves 36 9 11 16 -11 -3.2 38
18 Leganes 36 7 13 16 -21 -27.2 34
19 Las Palmas 36 8 8 20 -18 -29.9 32
20 Valladolid 36 4 4 28 -60 -32.4 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Osasuna Ath Madrid
25′
🟨 Rodrigo de Paul
1–0 Catena
Bryan Zaragoza
25′
Pablo Ibáñez 🟨
40′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Samuel Lino
↦ G. Simeone
46′
🔁 César Azpilicueta
↦ Javi Galán
52′
🔁 N. Molina
↦ Pablo Barrios
Kike Barja 🔁
↦ Rubén Peña
60′
64′
🔁 A. Griezmann
↦ J. Alvarez
64′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ Koke
67′
🔁 C. Gallagher
↦ A. Sørloth
Iker Muñoz 🔁
↦ Bryan Zaragoza
71′
Moncayola 🔁
↦ Pablo Ibáñez
71′
Abel Bretones 🔁
↦ Juan Cruz
81′
2–0 A. Budimir
Kike Barja
82′
Raúl García 🔁
↦ A. Budimir
88′
Moi Gómez 🔁
↦ Aimar Oroz
88′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Osasuna

4-2-3-1
1 Sergio Herrera G
12 Jesús Areso D
22 E. Boyomo D
24 Catena D
3 Juan Cruz D
8 Pablo Ibáñez M
6 Lucas Torró M
15 Rubén Peña M
10 Aimar Oroz M
19 Bryan Zaragoza M
17 A. Budimir F
Bench (12)
11 Kike Barja
18 Iker Muñoz
7 Moncayola
23 Abel Bretones
9 Raúl García
16 Moi Gómez
5 Jorge Herrando
4 Unai García
41 Íñigo Arguibide
13 Aitor Fernández
31 Pablo Valencia
20 José Arnáiz

Coach: Vicente Moreno

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 Marcos Llorente D
2 J. Giménez D
24 Robin Le Normand D
21 Javi Galán D
22 G. Simeone M
5 R. De Paul M
6 Koke M
8 Pablo Barrios M
9 A. Sørloth F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
12 Samuel Lino
3 César Azpilicueta
16 N. Molina
7 A. Griezmann
10 Á. Correa
4 C. Gallagher
23 Reinildo
1 J. Musso
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
15 C. Lenglet
20 A. Witsel
11 T. Lemar

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,74
U
3,30
B
2,08
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,12
U2,5 ✓
1,73
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Mario Melero · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.