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La Liga

Referee: Jesús Gil

Real Madrid

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Alaves

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

0,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,5

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 47%

68%

26%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

47%

38%

Both score Ø 44%

41%

47%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

71% Possession 29%

18 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Alaves 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	34	23	8	3	+41	77
2	Barcelona	35	23	7	5	+43	76
3	Ath Madrid	35	16	15	4	+21	63
4	Sevilla	35	17	12	6	+17	63
5	Villarreal	35	17	6	12	+12	57
6	Getafe	35	14	11	10	+9	53
7	Sociedad	35	15	6	14	+7	51
8	Granada	35	14	8	13	+3	50
9	Valencia	35	13	11	11	-6	50
10	Ath Bilbao	35	12	12	11	+8	48
11	Osasuna	35	11	12	12	-10	45
12	Levante	35	12	7	16	-7	43
13	Betis	35	10	11	14	-8	41
14	Valladolid	35	8	15	12	-10	39
15	Celta	35	7	15	13	-10	36
16	Eibar	35	9	9	17	-17	36
17	Alaves	34	9	8	17	-19	35
18	Mallorca	35	9	5	21	-22	32
19	Leganes	35	6	11	18	-24	29
20	Espanol	35	5	9	21	-28	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	16	2	0	+37	50
2	Real Madrid	17	13	4	0	+26	43
3	Ath Madrid	17	11	5	1	+16	38
4	Valencia	18	10	7	1	+12	37
5	Sevilla	17	8	7	2	+9	31
6	Ath Bilbao	18	9	4	5	+9	31
7	Betis	18	9	4	5	+8	31
8	Sociedad	18	9	3	6	+13	30
9	Getafe	18	8	6	4	+7	30
10	Granada	17	9	3	5	+7	30
11	Villarreal	17	8	5	4	+9	29
12	Levante	17	8	5	4	+8	29
13	Mallorca	18	8	3	7	+4	27
14	Alaves	17	7	5	5	+6	26
15	Eibar	18	7	3	8	-2	24
16	Osasuna	17	6	6	5	-4	24
17	Celta	18	5	8	5	+3	23
18	Valladolid	17	4	10	3	+2	22
19	Leganes	17	4	4	9	-10	16
20	Espanol	17	2	5	10	-14	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	17	10	4	3	+15	34
2	Sevilla	18	9	5	4	+8	32
3	Villarreal	18	9	1	8	+3	28
4	Barcelona	17	7	5	5	+6	26
5	Ath Madrid	18	5	10	3	+5	25
6	Getafe	17	6	5	6	+2	23
7	Sociedad	17	6	3	8	-6	21
8	Osasuna	18	5	6	7	-6	21
9	Granada	18	5	5	8	-4	20
10	Ath Bilbao	17	3	8	6	-1	17
11	Valladolid	18	4	5	9	-12	17
12	Levante	18	4	2	12	-15	14
13	Celta	17	2	7	8	-13	13
14	Espanol	18	3	4	11	-14	13
15	Leganes	18	2	7	9	-14	13
16	Valencia	17	3	4	10	-18	13
17	Eibar	17	2	6	9	-15	12
18	Betis	17	1	7	9	-16	10
19	Alaves	17	2	3	12	-25	9
20	Mallorca	17	1	2	14	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.