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Bundesliga
Referee: F Zwayer
Leverkusen
U U S S U
1–2
Full-time
FC Koln
U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen FC Koln
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
0,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches
Win Ø 37%
47%
27%
Points per game
1,6
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
63%
47%
Both score Ø 52%
50%
53%
Average goals
3,1
2,9
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,4
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,95 xG 0,80
64% Possession 36%
14 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 5
7 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
9 Corners 2
3 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Leverkusen 6. · FC Koln 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 30 18 8 4 +48 +12.1 62
2 Dortmund 30 19 4 7 +27 +12.3 61
3 Union Berlin 30 16 8 6 +13 -3.7 56
4 Freiburg 30 16 8 6 +9 -4.6 56
5 RB Leipzig 30 16 6 8 +17 +9.6 54
6 Leverkusen 30 14 6 10 +12 +9.1 48
7 Wolfsburg 30 12 10 8 +17 +7.5 46
8 Mainz 30 12 9 9 +6 +1.6 45
9 Ein Frankfurt 30 11 10 9 +4 -0.9 43
10 M'gladbach 30 9 9 12 -4 -3.6 36
11 FC Koln 30 8 11 11 -8 +1.4 35
12 Werder Bremen 30 10 5 15 -10 -5.1 35
13 Augsburg 30 8 7 15 -16 -8.5 31
14 Hoffenheim 30 8 5 17 -12 -5.1 29
15 Stuttgart 30 6 10 14 -14 +0.8 28
16 Bochum 30 8 4 18 -34 -8.5 28
17 Schalke 04 30 6 9 15 -29 -4.0 27
18 Hertha 30 5 7 18 -26 -10.3 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Leverkusen FC Koln
14′
D. Selke 0–1
F. Kainz
1–1 A. Adli
M. Diaby
28′
36′
D. Selke 1–2
J. Thielmann
45′
🟨 Jan Thielmann
Half-time 1–2
E. Palacios 🔁
↦ M. Bakker
57′
A. Hložek 🔁
↦ N. Amiri
57′
65′
🔁 K. Schindler
↦ F. Kainz
65′
🔁 M. Olesen
↦ J. Thielmann
69′
🟨 Mathias Olesen
71′
🟨 Davie Selke
71′
🔁 S. Tigges
↦ D. Selke
Amine Adli 🟨
80′
80′
🟨 Linton Maina
80′
🟨 Julian Chabot
S. Azmoun 🔁
↦ J. Tah
81′
83′
🟨 Benno Schmitz
85′
🔁 D. Huseinbašić
↦ D. Ljubičić
86′
🔁 S. Adamyan
↦ L. Maina
K. Bellarabi 🔁
↦ A. Adli
89′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Leverkusen

3-4-3
1 L. Hrádecký G
12 E. Tapsoba D
4 J. Tah D
3 P. Hincapié D
30 J. Frimpong M
8 R. Andrich M
11 N. Amiri M
5 M. Bakker M
19 M. Diaby F
21 A. Adli F
27 F. Wirtz F
Bench (9)
25 E. Palacios
23 A. Hložek
9 S. Azmoun
38 K. Bellarabi
28 P. Pentz
10 K. Demirbay
24 T. Fosu-Mensah
6 O. Kossounou
22 D. Sinkgraven

Coach: Xabi Alonso

FC Koln

4-2-3-1
20 M. Schwäbe G
2 B. Schmitz D
4 T. Hübers D
24 J. Chabot D
14 J. Hector D
7 D. Ljubičić M
28 E. Skhiri M
29 J. Thielmann M
11 F. Kainz M
37 L. Maina M
27 D. Selke F
Bench (9)
17 K. Schindler
47 M. Olesen
21 S. Tigges
8 D. Huseinbašić
23 S. Adamyan
3 K. Pedersen
1 T. Horn
19 D. Limnios
15 L. Kilian

Coach: S. Baumgart

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,69
U
4,04
B ✓
4,97
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,75
U2,5
2,10
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Zwayer · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.