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Champions League
Referee: Tiago Martins
Lugano
S S T T S
3–4
Full-time
Fenerbahce
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Fenerbahce
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,3
2,3
Conceded
1,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

55% Possession 45%
12 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 4
12 Free kicks against 8
5 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Lugano Fenerbahce
1–0 A. El Wafi ⚽
A. Grgic
4′
18′
🟨 Çağlar Söyüncü
Ayman El Wafi 🟨
29′
Half-time 1–1
46′
⚽ E. Džeko 1–1
46′
⚽ E. Džeko 1–2
D. Tadić
48′
🟨 Dušan Tadić
Antonios Papadopoulos 🟨
59′
L. Mai 🔁
↦ Y. Cimignani
61′
2–2 U. Bislimi ⚽
M. Bottani
64′
67′
⚽ E. Džeko 2–3
S. Szymański
68′
🔁 İ. Kahveci
↦ R. Kent
Mattia Bottani 🟨
69′
69′
🔁 F. Kadıoğlu
↦ D. Tadić
69′
🔁 M. Müldür
↦ B. Osayi-Samuel
70′
🟨 Jayden Oosterwolde
Anto Grgić 🟨
71′
Daniel Dos Santos 🔁
↦ U. Bislimi
71′
K. Przybyłko 🔁
↦ I. Aliseda
72′
H. Mahou 🔁
↦ M. Bottani
72′
73′
⚽ F. Kadıoğlu 2–4
Fred
Mattia Zanotti 🟨
77′
H. Mahmoud 🔁
↦ A. Grgic
80′
80′
🔁 C. Tosun
↦ E. Džeko
86′
🔁 M. Yandaş
↦ Fred
3–4 M. Valenzuela ⚽
94′
95′
🟨 Cenk Tosun
Full-time 3–4

Line-ups

Lugano

4-2-3-1
1 A. Saipi G
46 M. Zanotti D
6 A. Papadopoulos D
22 A. El Wafi D
23 M. Valenzuela D
20 O. Doumbia M
8 A. Grgic M
10 M. Bottani M
25 U. Bislimi M
21 Y. Cimignani M
31 I. Aliseda F
Bench (12)
17 L. Mai
27 Daniel Dos Santos
93 K. Przybyłko
18 H. Mahou
29 H. Mahmoud
26 Martim Marques
2 Z. Brault-Guillard
5 A. Hajdari
58 S. Osigwe
7 R. Macek
99 D. Mina
28 Y. Ryter

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Fenerbahce

4-3-3
40 D. Livaković G
21 B. Osayi-Samuel D
2 Ç. Söyüncü D
6 A. Djiku D
24 J. Oosterwolde D
35 Fred M
33 R. Krunić M
53 S. Szymański M
10 D. Tadić F
9 E. Džeko F
11 R. Kent F
Bench (12)
17 İ. Kahveci
7 F. Kadıoğlu
16 M. Müldür
23 C. Tosun
8 M. Yandaş
5 İ. Yüksek
95 Y. Akçiçek
28 B. Elmaz
70 O. Aydın
94 Y. Demir
54 E. Çetin
50 Rodrigo Becão

Coach: José Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Tiago Martins · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,47 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.