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Bundesliga

Referee: D Pfister

Ried

S T S U U

2–1

Full-time

Grazer AK

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ried Grazer AK

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 32%

37%

26%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

48%

56%

Both score Ø 60%

56%

63%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

2,22 xG 0,53

50% Possession 50%

17 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ried 8. · Grazer AK 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	27	14	5	8	+12	+6.8	47
2	LASK	27	13	6	8	+4	+11.1	45
3	Salzburg	27	12	8	7	+17	+9.0	44
4	SK Rapid	27	11	8	8	+2	-2.2	41
5	Austria Vienna	27	12	4	11	-3	+0.7	40
6	Altach	28	9	11	8	+1	-5.7	38
7	Hartberg	27	8	12	7	+3	-9.6	36
8	Ried	27	10	6	11	-3	-1.6	36
9	Tirol	28	9	9	10	-7	+1.6	36
10	Grazer AK	27	7	9	11	-8	-0.4	30
11	Wolfsberger AC	28	7	8	13	-8	-14.5	29
12	BW Linz	28	7	4	17	-10	+4.7	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Altach	14	7	6	1	+7	+1.0	27
2	LASK	14	8	3	3	+6	+9.1	27
3	Tirol	14	6	4	4	+2	+3.2	22
4	Grazer AK	14	5	6	3	+2	+1.7	21
5	Ried	13	6	3	4	+1	+1.1	21
6	SK Rapid	13	6	2	5	+2	-2.4	20
7	BW Linz	14	6	1	7	+5	+6.6	19
8	Salzburg	13	5	3	5	+6	+4.3	18
9	Wolfsberger AC	14	4	6	4	+2	-3.6	18
10	Sturm Graz	13	5	3	5	-2	+2.6	18
11	Austria Vienna	14	5	3	6	-6	+0.8	18
12	Hartberg	14	4	5	5	+0	-2.9	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	14	9	2	3	+14	+4.3	29
2	Salzburg	14	7	5	2	+11	+4.7	26
3	Austria Vienna	13	7	1	5	+3	-0.1	22
4	SK Rapid	14	5	6	3	+0	+0.2	21
5	Hartberg	13	4	7	2	+3	-6.6	19
6	LASK	13	5	3	5	-2	+2.1	18
7	Ried	14	4	3	7	-4	-2.6	15
8	Tirol	14	3	5	6	-9	-1.5	14
9	Altach	14	2	5	7	-6	-6.7	11
10	Wolfsberger AC	14	3	2	9	-10	-10.9	11
11	Grazer AK	13	2	3	8	-10	-2.1	9
12	BW Linz	14	1	3	10	-15	-1.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.