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Champions League
Referee: H Meler
Real Madrid
S U S S U
3–0
Full-time
Sp Braga
S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Sp Braga
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
2,8
4,3
Scored
2,0
2,8
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 3/7 matches
Win Ø 86%
100%
71%
Points per game
3,0
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 77%
67%
86%
Both score Ø 69%
67%
71%
Average goals
3,0
3,3
Scored
2,0
2,1
Conceded
1,0
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,25 xG 1,43
48% Possession 52%
18 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 4
7 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

24. Oct -23 Sp Braga – Real Madrid 1–2

Match report

Real Madrid Sp Braga
Lucas Vázquez 🟨
4′
1–0 Brahim Díaz ⚽
Rodrygo
27′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 Vinícius Júnior ⚽
Lucas Vázquez
58′
3–0 Rodrygo ⚽
Vinícius Júnior
61′
62′
🔁 Abel Ruiz
↦ Ricardo Horta
62′
🔁 J. Mendes
↦ Víctor Gómez
62′
🔁 Al Musrati
↦ R. Zalazar
Dani Carvajal 🔁
↦ Lucas Vázquez
74′
L. Modrić 🔁
↦ Brahim Díaz
74′
N. Paz 🔁
↦ F. Valverde
77′
Joselu 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
77′
77′
🔁 André Horta
↦ Bruma
77′
🔁 S. Banza
↦ Álvaro Djaló
Fran García 🔁
↦ F. Mendy
84′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-1-2
13 A. Lunin G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
23 F. Mendy D
15 F. Valverde M
12 E. Camavinga M
8 T. Kroos M
21 Brahim Díaz M
11 Rodrygo F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (9)
2 Dani Carvajal
10 L. Modrić
32 N. Paz
14 Joselu
20 Fran García
26 Diego Piñeiro
24 A. Güler
5 J. Bellingham
4 D. Alaba

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Sp Braga

4-3-3
1 Matheus G
2 Víctor Gómez D
6 José Fonte D
4 S. Niakaté D
26 C. Borja D
28 João Moutinho M
18 Vitor Carvalho M
16 R. Zalazar M
21 Ricardo Horta F
14 Álvaro Djaló F
7 Bruma F
Bench (12)
9 Abel Ruiz
17 J. Mendes
8 Al Musrati
10 André Horta
23 S. Banza
20 Rony Lopes
22 Pizzi
5 S. Saatçı
91 L. Horníček
19 Adrián Marín
15 Paulo Oliveira
88 Castro

Coach: Artur Jorge

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

H Meler · 115 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,34 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.