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Taça de Portugal
Referee: Gustavo Correia
Guimaraes
S S S U S
0–1
Full-time
AVS
U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes AVS
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,2
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
2,2
3,2
Scored
1,7
0,7
Conceded
0,5
2,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Taça de Portugal · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
2,5
3,5
Scored
2,5
3,5
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+3,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%
17 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
9 Corners 4
5 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Guimaraes 17. · AVS 36.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Lusitano Évora 1911 4 4 0 0 +12 12
2 Vila Meã 5 4 0 1 +7 12
3 Caldas 4 3 1 0 +8 10
4 União de Leiria 4 3 1 0 +5 10
5 Torreense 4 3 1 0 +4 10
6 Farense 3 3 0 0 +9 9
7 Comércio Indústria 4 3 0 1 +3 9
8 Fafe 3 3 0 0 +3 9
9 Espinho 3 2 1 0 +5 7
10 Academico Viseu 3 2 1 0 +4 7
11 1º Dezembro 4 2 1 1 +0 7
12 Mortágua 4 2 1 1 -1 7
13 Porto 2 2 0 0 +7 6
14 Lusitânia Lourosa 3 2 0 1 +6 6
15 Alpendorada 3 2 0 1 +5 6
16 Casa Pia 3 2 0 1 +5 6
17 Guimaraes 2 2 0 0 +5 6
18 CD Olivais e Moscavide 3 2 0 1 +4 6
19 Sp Lisbon 2 2 0 0 +4 6
20 Famalicao 2 2 0 0 +4 6
21 Benfica 2 2 0 0 +4 6
22 Sp Braga 2 2 0 0 +3 6
23 Amarante 3 2 0 1 +2 6
24 CF Os Belenenses 3 2 0 1 +2 6
25 Vianense 3 2 0 1 +1 6
26 Leixoes 3 2 0 1 +1 6
27 Vila Caíz 3 2 0 1 +1 6
28 Atlético CP 3 2 0 1 +1 6
29 Vila Real 3 2 0 1 -1 6
30 Sintrense 3 2 0 1 -1 6
31 AD Marco 09 3 2 0 1 -1 6
32 Silves 3 2 0 1 -2 6
33 Celoricense 3 2 0 1 -2 6
34 Marinhense 4 1 2 1 +3 5
35 Anadia 3 1 2 0 +1 5
36 AVS 2 1 1 0 +7 4
37 Ovarense 2 1 1 0 +6 4
38 Benfica Castelo Branco 2 1 1 0 +6 4
39 Tondela 2 1 1 0 +4 4
40 Santa Clara 2 1 1 0 +3 4
41 Moncarapachense 2 1 1 0 +3 4
42 Gouveia 2 1 1 0 +2 4
43 Oliveirense 2 1 1 0 +2 4
44 Os Marialvas 2 1 1 0 +1 4
45 SC Covilha 3 1 1 1 -1 4
46 Peniche 2 1 0 1 +7 3
47 Sacavenense 2 1 0 1 +5 3
48 Atlético Malveira 2 1 0 1 +5 3
49 Louletano 2 1 0 1 +4 3
50 Bragança 2 1 0 1 +4 3
51 Trofense 2 1 0 1 +3 3
52 Felgueiras 1932 2 1 0 1 +2 3
53 O Elvas 2 1 0 1 +2 3
54 FC Serpa 2 1 0 1 +2 3
55 Naval 1893 2 1 0 1 +2 3
56 São João Ver 2 1 0 1 +1 3
57 Rebordosa 2 1 0 1 +1 3
58 Salgueiros 2 1 0 1 +0 3
59 Nacional 2 1 0 1 +0 3
60 Portimonense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
61 Arouca 2 1 0 1 +0 3
62 Pacos Ferreira 2 1 0 1 +0 3
63 Estoril 2 1 0 1 +0 3
64 Correlhã 2 1 0 1 +0 3
65 Chaves 2 1 0 1 +0 3
66 Oriental Lisboa 2 1 0 1 +0 3
67 Mirandela 2 1 0 1 +0 3
68 União Lamas 2 1 0 1 +0 3
69 Uniao Nogueirense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
70 Nazarenos 2 1 0 1 +0 3
71 Ançã 2 1 0 1 -1 3
72 Monção 2 1 0 1 -1 3
73 Machico 2 1 0 1 -1 3
74 Resende 2 1 0 1 -1 3
75 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2 1 0 1 -3 3
76 Brito 2 1 0 1 -4 3
77 Castrense 2 1 0 1 -4 3
78 AD Fornos Algodres 2 1 0 1 -5 3
79 Alverca 1 0 1 0 +0 1
80 Samora Correir 1 0 1 0 +0 1
81 Penafiel 1 0 1 0 +0 1
82 Olímpico do Montijo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
83 Rebordelo 2 0 1 1 -2 1
84 Portimonense B 2 0 1 1 -2 1
85 Charneca Caparica 2 0 1 1 -2 1
86 Rio Ave 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Oliveira Hospital 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Eléctrico 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 Camacha 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 Gil Vicente 1 0 0 1 -1 0
91 Maria da Fonte 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Alcochetense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Vizela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Fazendense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 Tirsense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 Lagoa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 AR São Martinho 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Castro Daire 1 0 0 1 -1 0
99 Vitória de Sernache 1 0 0 1 -1 0
100 Carregal 1 0 0 1 -1 0
101 Academica 1 0 0 1 -1 0
102 Juventude Évora 1 0 0 1 -1 0
103 Moreirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
104 Feirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
105 Vilaverdense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
106 Quarteirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
107 Amora 1 0 0 1 -1 0
108 Ribeira Brava 1 0 0 1 -1 0
109 Florgrade 1 0 0 1 -1 0
110 Cinfães 1 0 0 1 -1 0
111 Mafra 1 0 0 1 -1 0
112 Celeirós 1 0 0 1 -1 0
113 Sourense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
114 Águias do Moradal 1 0 0 1 -1 0
115 Pontassolense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
116 Beira-Mar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
117 Estrela 1 0 0 1 -2 0
118 Aparecida GO 1 0 0 1 -2 0
119 Vinhais 1 0 0 1 -2 0
120 Leça 1 0 0 1 -2 0
121 União Santarém 1 0 0 1 -2 0
122 Paredes 1 0 0 1 -2 0
123 Maritimo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
124 UD da Serra 1 0 0 1 -2 0
125 Valpaços 1 0 0 1 -2 0
126 Vidago 1 0 0 1 -2 0
127 Valenciano 1 0 0 1 -3 0
128 Lusitânia 1 0 0 1 -3 0
129 Viana Alentejo 1 0 0 1 -3 0
130 Portel 1 0 0 1 -3 0
131 Fátima 1 0 0 1 -3 0
132 Académico do Fundão 1 0 0 1 -3 0
133 Portalegrense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
134 Varzim 1 0 0 1 -4 0
135 Almodôvar 1 0 0 1 -4 0
136 Sanjoanense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
137 AD Portomosense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
138 Os Limianos 1 0 0 1 -4 0
139 Operário 1 0 0 1 -5 0
140 Fayal 1 0 0 1 -5 0
141 Angrense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
142 Estrela Calheta 1 0 0 1 -6 0
143 SC Celoricense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
144 Mosteirense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
145 Urzelinense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
146 Lajense 2 0 0 2 -7 0
147 Rabo Peixe 1 0 0 1 -7 0
148 Ferreira Zêzere 1 0 0 1 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Guimaraes AVS
19′
🟨 Diogo Spencer
Thiago Balieiro 🔁
↦ O. Rivas Viondi
28′
41′
T. Akinsola 0–1
Half-time 0–1
D. Sousa 🔁
↦ G. Nogueira
46′
49′
🟨 Simão
58′
🔁 A. Algobia
↦ G. Mendonca
58′
🔁 G. Neiva
↦ J. Escobar
T. Arcanjo 🔁
↦ O. Lebedenko
59′
61′
🟨 Tiago Galletto
64′
🔁 Ponck
↦ T. Galletto
64′
🔁 R. Barbosa
↦ D. Spencer
A. Ndoye 🔁
↦ Maga
70′
85′
🔁 B. Lourenco
↦ D. Duarte
90′
🟨 Babatunde Akinsola
Thiago Balieiro 🟨
99′
99′
🟨 Leonardo Rivas
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Guimaraes

4-2-3-1
27 Charles Silva G
2 Maga D
4 O. Rivas Viondi D
26 R. Abascal D
17 O. Lebedenko D
30 G. Nogueira M
6 M. Mitrovic M
19 O. Camara F
20 Samu M
48 N. Saviolo F
7 N. Oliveira F
Bench (9)
98 Lucas Furtado
66 T. Strata
28 Thiago Balieiro
23 D. Sousa
80 R. Rocha
90 A. Ndoye
21 V. Felix
22 F. Blanco
18 T. Arcanjo

Coach: Luis Pinto

AVS

4-3-3
93 Simao G
2 D. Spencer D
33 A. Santos D
3 Paulo Vitor D
12 L. Rivas
19 T. Galletto M
15 J. Grau M
23 G. Mendonca M
11 T. Akinsola F
20 D. Duarte F
9 J. Escobar F
Bench (10)
88 Trigueira
99 Joao Goncalves
26 Ponck
24 Kiki
27 A. Algobia
17 B. Lourenco
77 A. Machado
21 G. Neiva
18 Nene
10 R. Barbosa

Coach: Ramos Borges Sousa Joao Pedro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Gustavo Correia · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
29,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,39 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.