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Copa del Rey

Referee: A Hernandez

Atlético Baleares

U S S

2–3

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atlético Baleares Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 7

2 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 14

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+8	+1.0	9
2	La Coruna	3	3	0	0	+7	+0.6	9
3	Elche	3	3	0	0	+6	-0.3	9
4	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
5	Cultural Leonesa	3	3	0	0	+5	–	9
6	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+12	–	6
7	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+10	–	6
8	Betis	2	2	0	0	+9	–	6
9	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+7	–	6
10	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+6	-0.4	6
11	Granada	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.1	6
12	Santander	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
13	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
14	Palma del Rio	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
15	Eibar	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.3	6
16	Sant Just	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
17	CF Talavera	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
18	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.1	6
19	Albacete	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
20	Ourense CF	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
21	Atlético Baleares	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.5	6
22	Eldense	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
23	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
24	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
25	Levante	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
26	Sp Gijon	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
27	Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.0	6
28	CD Sant Jordi	3	2	0	1	-2	–	6
29	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+6	–	4
30	Puerto de Vega	3	1	1	1	+2	–	4
31	Celta	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.1	4
32	Real Murcia	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
33	Sant Andreu	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
34	Antoniano	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
35	Maracena	3	1	1	1	-3	–	4
36	CD Yuncos	3	1	1	1	-3	–	4
37	Deportivo Getxo	3	1	1	1	-6	–	4
38	Inter de Valdemoro	3	1	1	1	-9	–	4
39	Tenerife	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.1	3
40	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
41	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
42	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
43	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
44	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
45	Ponferradina	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
46	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
47	Extremadura 1924	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
48	Zaragoza	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
49	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
50	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
51	SD Negreira	3	1	0	2	+0	–	3
52	Navalcarnero	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
53	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
54	Cartagena	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.0	3
55	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
56	Manises	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
57	Real Ávila	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
58	Cieza	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
59	Torrent	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
60	Sabadell	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
61	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
62	Textil Escudo	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
63	Los Garres	3	1	0	2	-4	–	3
64	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
65	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
66	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
67	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
68	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
69	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
70	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
71	Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
72	Betis Valladolid	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
73	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
74	Universitario FC	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
75	Mirandes	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
76	Sporting Ceuta	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
77	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
78	Ferrol	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
79	Campanario	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
80	Pontevedra	2	0	1	1	-3	–	1
81	Alberite	2	0	1	1	-4	–	1
82	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
83	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
84	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
85	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
86	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
87	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
88	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
89	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
90	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
91	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
92	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
93	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
94	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
95	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
96	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
97	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
98	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
99	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
100	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
101	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
102	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
103	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
104	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
105	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
106	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
107	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
108	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
109	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
110	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
111	Lourdes	2	0	0	2	-3	–	0
112	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
113	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
114	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
115	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
116	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
117	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
118	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
119	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
120	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
121	Atletico Calatayud	2	0	0	2	-6	–	0
122	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	–	0
123	Atlético Melilla	2	0	0	2	-10	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ourense CF	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
2	Cultural Leonesa	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
3	Atlético Baleares	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.5	6
4	Guadalajara	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.0	6
5	Real Murcia	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
6	Sant Andreu	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
7	Antoniano	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
8	Numancia	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
9	Puerto de Vega	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
10	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
11	Extremadura 1924	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
12	SD Negreira	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
13	Sant Just	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
14	CF Talavera	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
15	Textil Escudo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
16	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
17	Navalcarnero	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
18	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
19	Real Ávila	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
20	Cieza	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
21	Palma del Rio	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
22	Torrent	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
23	Los Garres	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
24	Portugalete	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
25	CD Yuncos	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
26	Maracena	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
27	CD Sant Jordi	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
28	Atlético Astorga	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
29	Alberite	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
30	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
31	UD Ourense	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
32	Langreo	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
33	Campanario	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
34	Quintanar del Rey	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
35	Ebro	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
36	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-2	–	1
37	Deportivo Getxo	2	0	1	1	-7	–	1
38	Inter de Valdemoro	2	0	1	1	-11	–	1
39	Orihuela	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
40	Constància	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
41	Leganes	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
42	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
43	Cartagena	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
44	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
45	Betis Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	Atlético Tordesillas	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Atlètic Lleida	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
48	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
49	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
50	Tenerife	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
51	Caudal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
52	Puente Genil	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
53	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
54	Universitario FC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
55	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
56	Ucam Murcia	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
57	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
58	Estepona	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
59	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
60	Tropezón	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
61	Mutilvera	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
62	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
63	Sp Gijon	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
64	Sabadell	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
65	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	La Unión Atlético	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	Rayo Majadahonda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
69	Azuaga	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
70	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
71	Toledo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
72	Pontevedra	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
73	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
74	San Fernando CD	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
75	Valle Egüés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
76	Roda	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
77	Sámano	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
78	SD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
79	RSD Alcalá	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
80	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0
81	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-6	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+8	+1.0	9
2	Elche	3	3	0	0	+6	-0.3	9
3	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+6	–	9
4	Getafe	2	2	0	0	+12	–	6
5	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+10	–	6
6	Betis	2	2	0	0	+9	–	6
7	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+7	–	6
8	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+6	-0.4	6
9	La Coruna	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
10	Eibar	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
11	Granada	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.1	6
12	Santander	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
13	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+5	–	6
14	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.1	6
15	Albacete	2	2	0	0	+4	–	6
16	Sp Gijon	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
17	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.6	6
18	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
19	Levante	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
20	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+6	–	4
21	Celta	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.1	4
22	Palma del Rio	1	1	0	0	+5	–	3
23	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
24	CF Talavera	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
25	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
26	Sant Just	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
27	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
28	Inter de Valdemoro	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
29	Ponferradina	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
30	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
31	CD Sant Jordi	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
32	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
33	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
34	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
35	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
36	Malaga	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
37	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
38	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
39	Sabadell	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
40	Deportivo Getxo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
41	Cartagena	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
42	Girona	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
43	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
44	Antequera	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
45	Ibiza	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Mirandes	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	Puerto de Vega	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Maracena	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
49	Universitario FC	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
50	Tarazona	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
51	Pontevedra	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
52	Europa Fc	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
53	Ferrol	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
54	Betis Valladolid	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
55	CD Yuncos	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
56	Mérida AD	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
57	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
58	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
59	SD Negreira	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	Castellon	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
62	Lourdes	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
63	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
64	Cordoba	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
65	Oviedo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Los Garres	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	Manises	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
71	Sporting Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
72	Campanario	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
73	Arenas Getxo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
74	Atletico Calatayud	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
75	Alberite	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
76	Textil Escudo	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
77	Atlético Melilla	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.