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Copa del Rey

Referee: José Munuera

Amorebieta

T S T U T

2–4

Full-time

Celta

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Amorebieta Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 1/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,0

3,5

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

0,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

45% Possession 55%

10 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Amorebieta 39. · Celta 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Getafe	3	3	0	0	+14	9
2	Alaves	3	3	0	0	+12	9
3	Vallecano	3	3	0	0	+10	9
4	Girona	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Betis	3	2	0	1	+11	6
6	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Celta	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Espanol	3	2	0	1	+3	6
14	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Ferrol	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
17	Elche	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Castellon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Tenerife	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
22	Lugo	3	2	0	1	+1	6
23	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+1	6
24	Arandina	3	2	0	1	+0	6
25	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+4	4
26	Melilla	2	1	1	0	+1	4
27	Malaga	2	1	1	0	+1	4
28	Alcorcon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
29	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
30	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	Levante	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Buñol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	La Coruna	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	3
39	Amorebieta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Sestao River	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Antequera	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Andratx	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Villanovense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Tudelano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Terrassa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Arenteiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	Atlético Astorga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
53	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
54	Cayón	2	1	0	1	-2	3
55	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
56	Valle Egüés	2	1	0	1	-2	3
57	Boiro	2	1	0	1	-3	3
58	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-4	3
59	Atlético Lugones	2	1	0	1	-5	3
60	Deportivo Murcia	2	1	0	1	-8	3
61	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
62	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
63	Cartagena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
64	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
72	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
73	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
74	Linares Deportivo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
75	Orihuela	2	0	1	1	-3	1
76	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
122	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
123	Arosa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Arandina	3	2	0	1	+0	6
3	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Malaga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Lugo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Andratx	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Villanovense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Tudelano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Terrassa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Atlético Astorga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
18	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	Valle Egüés	2	1	0	1	-2	3
20	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
21	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
22	Melilla	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Alcorcon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
29	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
30	Orihuela	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Sestao River	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Levante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Buñol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Linares Deportivo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Arenteiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Elche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Antequera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Cayón	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Boiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
74	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
75	Arosa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
76	Chiclana	1	0	0	1	-5	0
77	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-6	0
78	Deportivo Murcia	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Getafe	3	3	0	0	+14	9
2	Vallecano	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Girona	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Betis	3	2	0	1	+11	6
5	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+11	6
6	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Celta	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Tenerife	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+4	4
19	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Antequera	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Sestao River	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
33	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Atlético Lugones	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Amorebieta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
48	Cartagena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
49	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Malaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
55	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.