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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Newcastle

T S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Championship · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 50%

70%

30%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

48%

70%

Both score Ø 57%

39%

74%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,6

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Newcastle 2. · Nott'm Forest 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	23	15	6	2	+24	51
2	Newcastle	23	16	1	6	+27	49
3	Reading	22	13	4	5	+8	43
4	Leeds	24	13	3	8	+7	42
5	Huddersfield	22	13	3	6	+2	42
6	Derby	23	11	6	6	+9	39
7	Sheffield Weds	22	11	4	7	+3	37
8	Aston Villa	24	8	11	5	+3	35
9	Barnsley	23	10	4	9	+5	34
10	Birmingham	23	9	7	7	-3	34
11	Fulham	22	8	9	5	+7	33
12	Norwich	23	10	3	10	+1	33
13	Preston	23	9	5	9	+0	32
14	Brentford	23	8	5	10	-1	29
15	Wolves	23	7	7	9	-1	28
16	Ipswich	23	7	7	9	-4	28
17	Bristol City	23	8	3	12	+0	27
18	Nott'm Forest	23	7	5	11	-5	26
19	Burton Albion	24	6	7	11	-7	25
20	Cardiff	23	6	6	11	-12	24
21	QPR	23	6	5	12	-14	23
22	Blackburn	23	5	5	13	-12	20
23	Wigan	23	4	6	13	-10	18
24	Rotherham	24	3	4	17	-27	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	12	9	2	1	+19	29
2	Reading	12	8	3	1	+11	27
3	Huddersfield	10	8	1	1	+7	25
4	Aston Villa	12	6	6	0	+9	24
5	Sheffield Weds	11	8	0	3	+5	24
6	Leeds	12	7	2	3	+6	23
7	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+10	22
8	Newcastle	11	7	0	4	+11	21
9	Derby	12	6	3	3	+7	21
10	Birmingham	12	6	3	3	+3	21
11	Bristol City	11	6	1	4	+3	19
12	Brentford	11	5	3	3	+7	18
13	Nott'm Forest	11	5	3	3	+3	18
14	Barnsley	12	5	3	4	+2	18
15	Burton Albion	11	5	2	4	+4	17
16	Ipswich	12	4	5	3	+3	17
17	Preston	12	5	2	5	+2	17
18	Fulham	11	3	5	3	+1	14
19	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-5	14
20	Blackburn	12	3	4	5	-3	13
21	Wolves	11	3	3	5	-4	12
22	Rotherham	12	3	3	6	-4	12
23	QPR	12	3	3	6	-8	12
24	Wigan	11	2	3	6	-5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	12	9	1	2	+16	28
2	Brighton	11	6	4	1	+5	22
3	Fulham	11	5	4	2	+6	19
4	Leeds	12	6	1	5	+1	19
5	Derby	11	5	3	3	+2	18
6	Huddersfield	12	5	2	5	-5	17
7	Barnsley	11	5	1	5	+3	16
8	Wolves	12	4	4	4	+3	16
9	Reading	10	5	1	4	-3	16
10	Preston	11	4	3	4	-2	15
11	Sheffield Weds	11	3	4	4	-2	13
12	Birmingham	11	3	4	4	-6	13
13	QPR	11	3	2	6	-6	11
14	Aston Villa	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	Ipswich	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Brentford	12	3	2	7	-8	11
17	Norwich	12	3	2	7	-9	11
18	Cardiff	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Wigan	12	2	3	7	-5	9
20	Bristol City	12	2	2	8	-3	8
21	Nott'm Forest	12	2	2	8	-8	8
22	Burton Albion	13	1	5	7	-11	8
23	Blackburn	11	2	1	8	-9	7
24	Rotherham	12	0	1	11	-23	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.