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League Cup

Referee: J Busby

Newport County

3–2

Full-time

Portsmouth

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newport County Portsmouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

3,0

Scored

3,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+3,0

This season — League Cup · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

3,0

Scored

3,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

44% Possession 56%

16 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newport County 14. · Portsmouth 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+7	3
4	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Preston	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Forest Green	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Peterborough	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Fleetwood Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Rochdale	2	1	0	1	-1	3
32	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Oxford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0
71	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Grimsby	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Rochdale	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Forest Green	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Walsall	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Bradford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Cambridge United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Fleetwood Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Shrewsbury	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Oxford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Blackpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Mansfield Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Exeter City	1	1	0	0	+7	3
2	Preston	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Lincoln	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Peterborough	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Newport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Stevenage	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Colchester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Stockport County	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Barrow	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Sutton Utd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Rochdale	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-4	0
37	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-4	0
38	Hartlepool	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Newport County Portsmouth

9′

⚽ R. Curtis 0–1

T. Lowery

1–1 W. Evans ⚽

C. Zimba

14′

25′

⚽ R. Curtis 1–2

33′

🔁 K. Freeman

↦ Z. Swanson

Half-time 2–2

2–2 A. Wildig ⚽

A. Lewis

49′

M. Demetriou 🔁

↦ P. Farquharson

61′

63′

🔁 M. Pack

↦ T. Lowery

64′

🔁 M. Jacobs

↦ D. Scarlett

68′

🔁 O. Dale

↦ R. Hackett-Fairchild

68′

🔁 S. Raggett

↦ C. Robertson

69′

🟨 Sean Raggett

N. Moriah-Welsh 🔁

↦ S. Bowen

70′

J. Waite 🔁

↦ A. Wildig

71′

3–2 J. Waite ⚽

W. Evans

74′

Robbie Willmott 🟨

81′

O. Bogle 🔁

↦ C. Zimba

83′

84′

🟨 Jay Mingi

William Albert Evans 🟨

87′

Declan Drysdale 🟨

94′

🟨 Ronan Curtis

Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Newport County

4-2-2-2

1 J. Day G

2 C. Norman D

6 P. Farquharson D

3 D. Drysdale D

27 A. Lewis D

7 R. Willmott M

4 S. Bowen M

21 L. Collins M

24 A. Wildig M

18 C. Zimba F

29 W. Evans F

Bench (9)

28 M. Demetriou

22 N. Moriah-Welsh

11 J. Waite

9 O. Bogle

8 M. Dolan

49 T. Stokes

14 A. Lewis

30 N. Townsend

19 T. Nevers

Coach: J. Rowberry

Portsmouth

4-4-2

J. Griffiths G

Z. Swanson D

5 H. Mnoga D

4 C. Robertson D

6 C. Ogilvie D

R. Hackett-Fairchild M

25 J. Mingi M

T. Lowery M

11 R. Curtis M

10 J. Pigott F

19 D. Scarlett F

Bench (9)

13 K. Freeman

7 M. Pack

24 M. Jacobs

15 O. Dale

20 S. Raggett

21 J. Oluwayemi

17 J. Rafferty

36 J. Dockerill

35 A. Payce

Coach: D. Cowley

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5 ✓

–

🔒

U3,5

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

9. Aug LC 4 years ago

Referee

J Busby · 113 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

3,7 / match

Above average

⚽ Free kicks

21,0 / match

Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match stats

Match report

Line-ups

Newport County

Portsmouth

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee