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NM-cupen

Referee: Ola Hobber Nilsen

Lillestrom

S S S U S

1–1

Full-time

Fredrikstad

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lillestrom Fredrikstad

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

0,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — NM-cupen · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

4,0

4,3

Scored

3,3

4,0

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+3,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Lillestrom 10. · Fredrikstad 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rosenborg	4	4	0	0	+19	12
2	Viking	4	4	0	0	+17	12
3	Sarpsborg 08	4	4	0	0	+13	12
4	KFUM Oslo	4	4	0	0	+10	12
5	Stabaek	4	4	0	0	+9	12
6	Aalesund	4	3	1	0	+5	10
7	Ham-Kam	4	3	1	0	+5	10
8	Kristiansund	3	3	0	0	+11	9
9	Fredrikstad	3	3	0	0	+11	9
10	Lillestrom	3	3	0	0	+8	9
11	Bryne	4	3	0	1	+4	9
12	Asane	4	3	0	1	+2	9
13	Kongsvinger	4	2	1	1	+16	7
14	Molde	3	2	1	0	+11	7
15	Egersund	4	2	1	1	+5	7
16	Sogndal	3	2	1	0	+5	7
17	Mjondalen	4	2	1	1	+4	7
18	Ranheim	3	2	1	0	+3	7
19	Haugesund	3	2	0	1	+11	6
20	Bodo/Glimt	3	2	0	1	+11	6
21	Alta	3	2	0	1	+10	6
22	Tromso	3	2	0	1	+10	6
23	Brann	3	2	0	1	+7	6
24	Sandefjord	3	2	0	1	+5	6
25	Strommen	3	2	0	1	+4	6
26	Tromsdalen Uil	3	2	0	1	+3	6
27	Moss	3	2	0	1	+2	6
28	Lyn	3	2	0	1	+2	6
29	Rana	3	2	0	1	+1	6
30	Os	3	2	0	1	+0	6
31	Pors Grenland	3	2	0	1	+0	6
32	Stromsgodset	2	1	1	0	+5	4
33	Træff	2	1	1	0	+2	4
34	Grorud	3	1	1	1	+1	4
35	Levanger	2	1	0	1	+7	3
36	Eidsvold	2	1	0	1	+3	3
37	Follo	2	1	0	1	+2	3
38	Raufoss	2	1	0	1	+2	3
39	Jerv	2	1	0	1	+2	3
40	Start	2	1	0	1	+1	3
41	Lysekloster	2	1	0	1	+1	3
42	Lørenskog	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Vidar	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Torvastad	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Skeid	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Bjarg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Stjørdals-Blink	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Skjervøy	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Nardo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Fram	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Sotra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	Flekkerøy	2	1	0	1	-1	3
53	Sandviken	2	1	0	1	-2	3
54	Strindheim	2	1	0	1	-2	3
55	Kjelsås	2	1	0	1	-2	3
56	Elverum	2	1	0	1	-3	3
57	Junkeren	2	1	0	1	-3	3
58	Flint	2	1	0	1	-4	3
59	Sortland	2	1	0	1	-4	3
60	Bærum	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Nordstrand	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Asker	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Brattvåg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Arendal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Valerenga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Ull/Kisa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
67	hodd	2	0	1	1	-2	1
68	Ørn Horten	2	0	1	1	-2	1
69	IF Ready	2	0	1	1	-3	1
70	Gamle Oslo	2	0	1	1	-5	1
71	Odd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Djerv	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Harstad	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Råde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Fløya	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Volda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Trygg/Lade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Hønefoss	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Oppsal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Melbo IL	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Kvik Trondheim	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Byåsen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Fana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Sverresborg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Våg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Kvik Halden	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Frigg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Brodd	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Fjøra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	NHHI	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	Gjøvik-Lyn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
92	Spjelkavik	1	0	0	1	-2	0
93	Sandnes ULF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
94	Gneist	1	0	0	1	-2	0
95	Lillehammer	1	0	0	1	-2	0
96	Vard	1	0	0	1	-2	0
97	Ullern	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Brumunddal	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	Eik-Tønsberg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Åssiden IF	1	0	0	1	-3	0
101	Notodden	1	0	0	1	-3	0
102	Vindbjart	1	0	0	1	-3	0
103	Union Carl Berner	1	0	0	1	-3	0
104	Rollon	1	0	0	1	-3	0
105	Ulfstind	1	0	0	1	-3	0
106	Melhus	1	0	0	1	-4	0
107	Askøy	1	0	0	1	-4	0
108	SF Grei	1	0	0	1	-4	0
109	Sprint-Jeløy	1	0	0	1	-4	0
110	Mosjøen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
111	Sarpsborg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
112	Varhaug	1	0	0	1	-4	0
113	Bjørkelangen	1	0	0	1	-5	0
114	Skjetten	1	0	0	1	-5	0
115	Skedsmo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
116	Konnerud	1	0	0	1	-5	0
117	Teie	1	0	0	1	-5	0
118	Eiger	1	0	0	1	-6	0
119	Varegg	1	0	0	1	-6	0
120	Hana	1	0	0	1	-6	0
121	Elnesvågen	1	0	0	1	-7	0
122	Verdal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
123	Innstranden	1	0	0	1	-8	0
124	Rindal	1	0	0	1	-10	0
125	Hamna	1	0	0	1	-10	0
126	Bjørnevatn	1	0	0	1	-11	0
127	Nord	1	0	0	1	-11	0
128	Ridabu	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stabaek	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Os	3	2	0	1	+0	6
3	Aalesund	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Sarpsborg 08	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Grorud	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Vidar	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Torvastad	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Skjervøy	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Pors Grenland	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Fram	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Strommen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Alta	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Bryne	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Elverum	2	1	0	1	-3	3
15	Junkeren	2	1	0	1	-3	3
16	Flint	2	1	0	1	-4	3
17	Sogndal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Bærum	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Nordstrand	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Ranheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Mjondalen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Brattvåg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Træff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Ørn Horten	2	0	1	1	-2	1
25	IF Ready	2	0	1	1	-3	1
26	Gamle Oslo	2	0	1	1	-5	1
27	Kongsvinger	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Ull/Kisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Follo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Djerv	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Stjørdals-Blink	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Levanger	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Råde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Volda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Tromso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Jerv	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Moss	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Trygg/Lade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Hønefoss	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Lørenskog	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Oppsal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Melbo IL	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Kvik Trondheim	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Byåsen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Sverresborg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Våg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Egersund	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Kvik Halden	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Frigg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Brodd	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Fjøra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	NHHI	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Lyn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Sotra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Eidsvold	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Spjelkavik	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Bjarg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Gneist	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Lillehammer	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Ullern	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Brumunddal	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Nardo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Åssiden IF	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Notodden	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Kjelsås	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Vindbjart	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Flekkerøy	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Strindheim	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Union Carl Berner	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Rollon	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Ulfstind	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Melhus	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Askøy	1	0	0	1	-4	0
74	SF Grei	1	0	0	1	-4	0
75	Sprint-Jeløy	1	0	0	1	-4	0
76	Rana	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Sandviken	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Mosjøen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Sarpsborg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
80	Varhaug	1	0	0	1	-4	0
81	Bjørkelangen	1	0	0	1	-5	0
82	Tromsdalen Uil	1	0	0	1	-5	0
83	Skjetten	1	0	0	1	-5	0
84	Skedsmo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
85	Sortland	1	0	0	1	-5	0
86	Konnerud	1	0	0	1	-5	0
87	Teie	1	0	0	1	-5	0
88	Eiger	1	0	0	1	-6	0
89	Varegg	1	0	0	1	-6	0
90	Hana	1	0	0	1	-6	0
91	Asane	1	0	0	1	-7	0
92	Elnesvågen	1	0	0	1	-7	0
93	Verdal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
94	Innstranden	1	0	0	1	-8	0
95	Rindal	1	0	0	1	-10	0
96	Hamna	1	0	0	1	-10	0
97	Bjørnevatn	1	0	0	1	-11	0
98	Nord	1	0	0	1	-11	0
99	Ridabu	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Rosenborg	4	4	0	0	+19	12
2	Viking	4	4	0	0	+17	12
3	KFUM Oslo	4	4	0	0	+10	12
4	Ham-Kam	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Sarpsborg 08	3	3	0	0	+11	9
6	Kristiansund	3	3	0	0	+11	9
7	Fredrikstad	3	3	0	0	+11	9
8	Asane	3	3	0	0	+9	9
9	Lillestrom	3	3	0	0	+8	9
10	Kongsvinger	3	2	1	0	+17	7
11	Molde	3	2	1	0	+11	7
12	Egersund	3	2	1	0	+7	7
13	Haugesund	3	2	0	1	+11	6
14	Bodo/Glimt	3	2	0	1	+11	6
15	Tromso	2	2	0	0	+11	6
16	Tromsdalen Uil	2	2	0	0	+8	6
17	Brann	3	2	0	1	+7	6
18	Stabaek	2	2	0	0	+7	6
19	Sandefjord	3	2	0	1	+5	6
20	Rana	2	2	0	0	+5	6
21	Sogndal	2	2	0	0	+5	6
22	Bryne	2	2	0	0	+5	6
23	Mjondalen	3	2	0	1	+4	6
24	Aalesund	2	2	0	0	+4	6
25	Lyn	2	2	0	0	+4	6
26	Ranheim	2	2	0	0	+3	6
27	Moss	2	2	0	0	+3	6
28	Stromsgodset	2	1	1	0	+5	4
29	Alta	1	1	0	0	+11	3
30	Levanger	1	1	0	0	+8	3
31	Strommen	1	1	0	0	+5	3
32	Eidsvold	1	1	0	0	+5	3
33	Follo	1	1	0	0	+3	3
34	Jerv	1	1	0	0	+3	3
35	Raufoss	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	Nardo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Lørenskog	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Flekkerøy	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Bjarg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Sandviken	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Træff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	Start	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Lysekloster	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Sotra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Strindheim	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Pors Grenland	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Kjelsås	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Sortland	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Stjørdals-Blink	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Skeid	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Grorud	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Ull/Kisa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Asker	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Arendal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Valerenga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	hodd	2	0	1	1	-2	1
57	Odd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Harstad	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Fløya	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Fana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Gjøvik-Lyn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Sandnes ULF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Vard	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Eik-Tønsberg	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.