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NM-cupen

Referee: Harald Vollstad Sletner

Grorud

S T T U S

2–3

Full-time

Lillestrom

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Grorud Lillestrom

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

4,0

2,5

Scored

2,3

2,5

Conceded

1,7

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — NM-cupen · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

3,5

Scored

3,0

3,5

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+3,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Grorud 33. · Lillestrom 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Kongsvinger	2	2	0	0	+17	6
2	Alta	2	2	0	0	+14	6
3	Rosenborg	2	2	0	0	+13	6
4	Bodo/Glimt	2	2	0	0	+12	6
5	Haugesund	2	2	0	0	+12	6
6	Tromso	2	2	0	0	+11	6
7	Sarpsborg 08	2	2	0	0	+9	6
8	Fredrikstad	2	2	0	0	+9	6
9	Viking	2	2	0	0	+9	6
10	Brann	2	2	0	0	+8	6
11	Tromsdalen Uil	2	2	0	0	+8	6
12	Kristiansund	2	2	0	0	+7	6
13	Egersund	2	2	0	0	+7	6
14	KFUM Oslo	2	2	0	0	+7	6
15	Stabaek	2	2	0	0	+7	6
16	Lillestrom	2	2	0	0	+7	6
17	Sandefjord	2	2	0	0	+7	6
18	Strommen	2	2	0	0	+6	6
19	Asane	2	2	0	0	+6	6
20	Rana	2	2	0	0	+5	6
21	Sogndal	2	2	0	0	+5	6
22	Bryne	2	2	0	0	+5	6
23	Aalesund	2	2	0	0	+4	6
24	Lyn	2	2	0	0	+4	6
25	Os	2	2	0	0	+3	6
26	Ranheim	2	2	0	0	+3	6
27	Moss	2	2	0	0	+3	6
28	Ham-Kam	2	2	0	0	+3	6
29	Pors Grenland	2	2	0	0	+2	6
30	Molde	2	1	1	0	+7	4
31	Stromsgodset	2	1	1	0	+5	4
32	Mjondalen	2	1	1	0	+3	4
33	Grorud	2	1	1	0	+2	4
34	Træff	2	1	1	0	+2	4
35	Levanger	2	1	0	1	+7	3
36	Eidsvold	2	1	0	1	+3	3
37	Follo	2	1	0	1	+2	3
38	Raufoss	2	1	0	1	+2	3
39	Jerv	2	1	0	1	+2	3
40	Start	2	1	0	1	+1	3
41	Lysekloster	2	1	0	1	+1	3
42	Lørenskog	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Vidar	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Torvastad	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Skeid	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Bjarg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Stjørdals-Blink	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Skjervøy	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Nardo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Fram	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Sotra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	Flekkerøy	2	1	0	1	-1	3
53	Sandviken	2	1	0	1	-2	3
54	Strindheim	2	1	0	1	-2	3
55	Kjelsås	2	1	0	1	-2	3
56	Elverum	2	1	0	1	-3	3
57	Junkeren	2	1	0	1	-3	3
58	Flint	2	1	0	1	-4	3
59	Sortland	2	1	0	1	-4	3
60	Bærum	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Nordstrand	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Asker	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Brattvåg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Arendal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Valerenga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Ull/Kisa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
67	hodd	2	0	1	1	-2	1
68	Ørn Horten	2	0	1	1	-2	1
69	IF Ready	2	0	1	1	-3	1
70	Gamle Oslo	2	0	1	1	-5	1
71	Odd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Djerv	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Harstad	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Råde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Fløya	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Volda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Trygg/Lade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Hønefoss	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Oppsal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Melbo IL	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Kvik Trondheim	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Byåsen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Fana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Sverresborg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Våg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Kvik Halden	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Frigg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Brodd	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Fjøra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	NHHI	1	0	0	1	-2	0
91	Gjøvik-Lyn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
92	Spjelkavik	1	0	0	1	-2	0
93	Sandnes ULF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
94	Gneist	1	0	0	1	-2	0
95	Lillehammer	1	0	0	1	-2	0
96	Vard	1	0	0	1	-2	0
97	Ullern	1	0	0	1	-3	0
98	Brumunddal	1	0	0	1	-3	0
99	Eik-Tønsberg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
100	Åssiden IF	1	0	0	1	-3	0
101	Notodden	1	0	0	1	-3	0
102	Vindbjart	1	0	0	1	-3	0
103	Union Carl Berner	1	0	0	1	-3	0
104	Rollon	1	0	0	1	-3	0
105	Ulfstind	1	0	0	1	-3	0
106	Melhus	1	0	0	1	-4	0
107	Askøy	1	0	0	1	-4	0
108	SF Grei	1	0	0	1	-4	0
109	Sprint-Jeløy	1	0	0	1	-4	0
110	Mosjøen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
111	Sarpsborg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
112	Varhaug	1	0	0	1	-4	0
113	Bjørkelangen	1	0	0	1	-5	0
114	Skjetten	1	0	0	1	-5	0
115	Skedsmo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
116	Konnerud	1	0	0	1	-5	0
117	Teie	1	0	0	1	-5	0
118	Eiger	1	0	0	1	-6	0
119	Varegg	1	0	0	1	-6	0
120	Hana	1	0	0	1	-6	0
121	Elnesvågen	1	0	0	1	-7	0
122	Verdal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
123	Innstranden	1	0	0	1	-8	0
124	Rindal	1	0	0	1	-10	0
125	Hamna	1	0	0	1	-10	0
126	Bjørnevatn	1	0	0	1	-11	0
127	Nord	1	0	0	1	-11	0
128	Ridabu	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Os	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Alta	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Grorud	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Pors Grenland	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Vidar	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Torvastad	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Strommen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Skjervøy	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Fram	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Elverum	2	1	0	1	-3	3
11	Junkeren	2	1	0	1	-3	3
12	Flint	2	1	0	1	-4	3
13	Bærum	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Nordstrand	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Mjondalen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Brattvåg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Træff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Ørn Horten	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	IF Ready	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Gamle Oslo	2	0	1	1	-5	1
21	Ull/Kisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Follo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Djerv	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Stjørdals-Blink	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Levanger	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Råde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Volda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Jerv	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Trygg/Lade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Hønefoss	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Lørenskog	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Oppsal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Melbo IL	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Kvik Trondheim	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Byåsen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Sverresborg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Våg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Kvik Halden	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Frigg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Brodd	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Fjøra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	NHHI	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Sotra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Eidsvold	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Spjelkavik	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Bjarg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Gneist	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Lillehammer	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Ullern	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	Brumunddal	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Nardo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
52	Åssiden IF	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Notodden	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	Kjelsås	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Vindbjart	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Flekkerøy	1	0	0	1	-3	0
57	Strindheim	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Union Carl Berner	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Rollon	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Ulfstind	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Melhus	1	0	0	1	-4	0
62	Askøy	1	0	0	1	-4	0
63	SF Grei	1	0	0	1	-4	0
64	Sprint-Jeløy	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Sandviken	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Mosjøen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
67	Sarpsborg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
68	Varhaug	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Bjørkelangen	1	0	0	1	-5	0
70	Skjetten	1	0	0	1	-5	0
71	Skedsmo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
72	Sortland	1	0	0	1	-5	0
73	Konnerud	1	0	0	1	-5	0
74	Teie	1	0	0	1	-5	0
75	Eiger	1	0	0	1	-6	0
76	Varegg	1	0	0	1	-6	0
77	Hana	1	0	0	1	-6	0
78	Elnesvågen	1	0	0	1	-7	0
79	Verdal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
80	Innstranden	1	0	0	1	-8	0
81	Rindal	1	0	0	1	-10	0
82	Hamna	1	0	0	1	-10	0
83	Bjørnevatn	1	0	0	1	-11	0
84	Nord	1	0	0	1	-11	0
85	Ridabu	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Kongsvinger	2	2	0	0	+17	6
2	Rosenborg	2	2	0	0	+13	6
3	Bodo/Glimt	2	2	0	0	+12	6
4	Haugesund	2	2	0	0	+12	6
5	Tromso	2	2	0	0	+11	6
6	Sarpsborg 08	2	2	0	0	+9	6
7	Fredrikstad	2	2	0	0	+9	6
8	Viking	2	2	0	0	+9	6
9	Brann	2	2	0	0	+8	6
10	Tromsdalen Uil	2	2	0	0	+8	6
11	Kristiansund	2	2	0	0	+7	6
12	Egersund	2	2	0	0	+7	6
13	KFUM Oslo	2	2	0	0	+7	6
14	Stabaek	2	2	0	0	+7	6
15	Lillestrom	2	2	0	0	+7	6
16	Sandefjord	2	2	0	0	+7	6
17	Asane	2	2	0	0	+6	6
18	Rana	2	2	0	0	+5	6
19	Sogndal	2	2	0	0	+5	6
20	Bryne	2	2	0	0	+5	6
21	Aalesund	2	2	0	0	+4	6
22	Lyn	2	2	0	0	+4	6
23	Ranheim	2	2	0	0	+3	6
24	Moss	2	2	0	0	+3	6
25	Ham-Kam	2	2	0	0	+3	6
26	Molde	2	1	1	0	+7	4
27	Stromsgodset	2	1	1	0	+5	4
28	Alta	1	1	0	0	+11	3
29	Levanger	1	1	0	0	+8	3
30	Strommen	1	1	0	0	+5	3
31	Eidsvold	1	1	0	0	+5	3
32	Follo	1	1	0	0	+3	3
33	Mjondalen	1	1	0	0	+3	3
34	Jerv	1	1	0	0	+3	3
35	Raufoss	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	Nardo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Lørenskog	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Flekkerøy	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Bjarg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Sandviken	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Træff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
42	Start	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Lysekloster	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Sotra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Strindheim	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Pors Grenland	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Kjelsås	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Sortland	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Stjørdals-Blink	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Skeid	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Grorud	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Ull/Kisa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Asker	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Arendal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Valerenga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	hodd	2	0	1	1	-2	1
57	Odd	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Harstad	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Fløya	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Fana	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Gjøvik-Lyn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Sandnes ULF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Vard	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Eik-Tønsberg	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.