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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

Man United

T S T T U

3–2

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 46%

38%

54%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

54%

38%

Both score Ø 43%

62%

23%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 17

10 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 10. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	14	10	3	1	+27	33
2	Man City	14	10	2	2	+21	32
3	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+31	31
4	West Ham	14	7	3	4	+8	24
5	Arsenal	13	7	2	4	-2	23
6	Tottenham	13	7	1	5	-4	22
7	Wolves	14	6	3	5	+0	21
8	Brighton	14	4	7	3	-2	19
9	Leicester	14	5	4	5	-3	19
10	Man United	13	5	3	5	-1	18
11	Crystal Palace	14	3	7	4	-1	16
12	Brentford	14	4	4	6	-2	16
13	Aston Villa	14	5	1	8	-4	16
14	Everton	14	4	3	7	-7	15
15	Southampton	14	3	6	5	-7	15
16	Leeds	14	3	6	5	-7	15
17	Watford	14	4	1	9	-7	13
18	Burnley	13	1	7	5	-6	10
19	Norwich	14	2	4	8	-20	10
20	Newcastle	14	0	7	7	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	5	1	1	+14	16
2	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+6	16
3	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+13	15
4	Tottenham	7	5	0	2	+0	15
5	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+14	14
6	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+4	10
8	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+2	10
9	Southampton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
10	Everton	7	3	1	3	-1	10
11	Leicester	7	3	1	3	-1	10
12	Wolves	7	3	1	3	-1	10
13	Leeds	7	2	3	2	-2	9
14	Brighton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
15	Man United	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-1	7
17	Watford	7	2	1	4	-5	7
18	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
19	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-6	5
20	Newcastle	7	0	4	3	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Liverpool	7	5	1	1	+18	16
3	Man City	7	5	1	1	+7	16
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Man United	7	3	2	2	+0	11
7	Brighton	7	2	4	1	+0	10
8	Brentford	7	2	3	2	-1	9
9	Leicester	7	2	3	2	-2	9
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
12	Watford	7	2	0	5	-2	6
13	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-5	6
14	Leeds	7	1	3	3	-5	6
15	Aston Villa	7	2	0	5	-6	6
16	Everton	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-14	5
19	Burnley	7	0	4	3	-6	4
20	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.