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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Luton

T S T T U

1–0

Full-time

Cardiff

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 27%

23%

31%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

62%

31%

Both score Ø 47%

62%

31%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,99 xG 0,59

44% Possession 56%

8 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 6

5 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 22. · Cardiff 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	13	9	2	2	+14	+2.8	29
2	Sheffield United	13	8	3	2	+10	+5.1	27
3	Leeds	14	7	5	2	+13	+14.2	26
4	Burnley	13	6	5	2	+11	+1.8	23
5	Millwall	14	6	4	4	+5	+6.8	22
6	Watford	14	7	1	6	+0	-4.1	22
7	West Brom	13	5	6	2	+6	+5.8	21
8	Middlesbrough	14	6	3	5	+2	+13.3	21
9	Swansea	14	5	4	5	+2	+2.0	19
10	Bristol City	13	4	7	2	+0	+0.4	19
11	Blackburn	14	5	4	5	+0	-1.7	19
12	Norwich	14	4	6	4	+3	+1.8	18
13	Derby	14	5	3	6	+0	-4.4	18
14	Stoke	14	5	3	6	-1	-4.9	18
15	Sheffield Weds	14	5	3	6	-7	-2.9	18
16	Oxford	14	4	5	5	+0	-5.6	17
17	Coventry	14	4	3	7	-1	+5.0	15
18	Hull	14	3	6	5	-3	-1.9	15
19	Cardiff	13	4	3	6	-6	-4.2	15
20	Plymouth	14	4	3	7	-11	-13.9	15
21	Preston	13	3	5	5	-6	-2.4	14
22	Luton	13	3	3	7	-6	+1.5	12
23	QPR	14	1	7	6	-11	-4.8	10
24	Portsmouth	14	1	6	7	-14	-9.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	7	5	1	1	+10	+8.9	16
2	Sunderland	6	5	1	0	+10	+2.5	16
3	Watford	6	5	1	0	+7	+2.0	16
4	Sheffield United	6	5	1	0	+7	+5.8	16
5	Millwall	8	5	1	2	+6	+7.6	16
6	Blackburn	8	5	1	2	+5	+1.6	16
7	Oxford	8	4	3	1	+5	-2.1	15
8	Plymouth	7	4	2	1	+4	-0.6	14
9	Derby	6	4	1	1	+6	+0.7	13
10	Burnley	6	3	3	0	+7	+2.0	12
11	Swansea	7	3	3	1	+4	+5.5	12
12	Cardiff	7	4	0	3	+3	-1.6	12
13	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+4	+0.8	11
14	Preston	7	3	2	2	+1	+1.6	11
15	Sheffield Weds	8	3	2	3	-1	+1.8	11
16	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	-1	+7.5	11
17	Norwich	6	2	4	0	+7	+2.7	10
18	Bristol City	6	2	4	0	+2	-0.4	10
19	Coventry	7	3	0	4	+1	+5.4	9
20	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	+4.8	9
21	Luton	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.5	8
22	Hull	7	1	4	2	+0	+1.3	7
23	QPR	8	0	4	4	-8	-0.5	4
24	Portsmouth	6	0	3	3	-6	-3.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	7	4	1	2	+4	+0.3	13
2	West Brom	7	3	3	1	+5	+1.0	12
3	Burnley	7	3	2	2	+4	-0.2	11
4	Sheffield United	7	3	2	2	+3	-0.8	11
5	Middlesbrough	7	3	1	3	+3	+5.8	10
6	Leeds	7	2	4	1	+3	+5.3	10
7	Bristol City	7	2	3	2	-2	+0.8	9
8	Hull	7	2	2	3	-3	-3.2	8
9	Norwich	8	2	2	4	-4	-0.9	8
10	Swansea	7	2	1	4	-2	-3.5	7
11	Stoke	7	2	1	4	-5	-5.6	7
12	Sheffield Weds	6	2	1	3	-6	-4.8	7
13	Millwall	6	1	3	2	-1	-0.8	6
14	Coventry	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.4	6
15	QPR	6	1	3	2	-3	-4.4	6
16	Watford	8	2	0	6	-7	-6.1	6
17	Portsmouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-6.6	6
18	Derby	8	1	2	5	-6	-5.1	5
19	Luton	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.0	4
20	Blackburn	6	0	3	3	-5	-3.3	3
21	Preston	6	0	3	3	-7	-4.0	3
22	Cardiff	6	0	3	3	-9	-2.7	3
23	Oxford	6	0	2	4	-5	-3.5	2
24	Plymouth	7	0	1	6	-15	-13.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.