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Serie B

Referee: M Marcenaro

Palermo

S U S T T

2–0

Full-time

Catanzaro

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Palermo Catanzaro

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 39/40 matches

Win Ø 47%

51%

43%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

46%

58%

Both score Ø 53%

41%

65%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,26 xG 0,63

53% Possession 47%

17 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 1

0 Offside 3

28 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

2 Red cards 0

The table before the match Palermo 4. · Catanzaro 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	38	24	10	4	+46	+37.2	82
2	Frosinone	38	23	12	3	+42	+12.1	81
3	Monza	40	23	11	6	+30	+16.5	80
4	Palermo	39	20	12	7	+25	+9.9	72
5	Catanzaro	40	17	14	9	+17	+2.2	65
6	Modena	39	15	10	14	+12	+5.8	55
7	Juve Stabia	41	12	19	10	-1	-1.0	55
8	Avellino	39	13	10	16	-15	-15.3	49
9	Padova	38	12	10	16	-10	-14.8	46
10	Cesena	38	12	10	16	-11	+3.4	46
11	Mantova	38	13	7	18	-12	-0.0	46
12	Carrarese	38	10	14	14	-5	-7.5	44
13	Sampdoria	38	11	11	16	-13	-1.7	44
14	Sudtirol	39	8	18	13	-10	-3.7	42
15	Virtus Entella	38	10	12	16	-15	-7.3	42
16	Empoli	38	9	14	15	-7	+4.8	41
17	Bari	39	10	11	18	-22	-24.9	41
18	Reggiana	38	9	10	19	-20	-9.9	37
19	Pescara	38	7	14	17	-15	-4.2	35
20	Spezia	38	8	11	19	-16	-1.6	35

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	19	17	0	2	+32	+21.2	51
2	Monza	20	15	4	1	+23	+13.8	49
3	Palermo	19	14	4	1	+26	+9.8	46
4	Frosinone	19	12	5	2	+27	+10.9	41
5	Catanzaro	21	11	8	2	+17	+5.4	41
6	Juve Stabia	20	8	10	2	+10	+7.5	34
7	Virtus Entella	19	9	7	3	+9	+1.6	34
8	Sampdoria	19	9	5	5	+2	+3.1	32
9	Avellino	19	9	5	5	+1	-1.5	32
10	Modena	20	9	4	7	+10	+0.3	31
11	Mantova	19	9	3	7	-1	+5.2	30
12	Carrarese	19	7	8	4	+9	+4.9	29
13	Bari	20	7	6	7	-2	-9.0	27
14	Empoli	19	5	11	3	+7	+10.4	26
15	Padova	19	6	7	6	-1	-5.4	25
16	Reggiana	19	6	7	6	-2	-5.2	25
17	Cesena	19	6	6	7	-1	+5.7	24
18	Pescara	19	5	7	7	+2	-2.8	22
19	Sudtirol	19	5	7	7	-2	-0.6	22
20	Spezia	19	5	6	8	-3	+2.2	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	19	11	7	1	+15	+1.2	40
2	Venezia	19	7	10	2	+14	+15.9	31
3	Monza	20	8	7	5	+7	+2.8	31
4	Palermo	20	6	8	6	-1	+0.1	26
5	Modena	19	6	6	7	+2	+5.6	24
6	Catanzaro	19	6	6	7	+0	-3.2	24
7	Cesena	19	6	4	9	-10	-2.3	22
8	Padova	19	6	3	10	-9	-9.3	21
9	Juve Stabia	21	4	9	8	-11	-8.5	21
10	Sudtirol	20	3	11	6	-8	-3.1	20
11	Avellino	20	4	5	11	-16	-13.8	17
12	Mantova	19	4	4	11	-11	-5.3	16
13	Carrarese	19	3	6	10	-14	-12.4	15
14	Empoli	19	4	3	12	-14	-5.6	15
15	Spezia	19	3	5	11	-13	-3.7	14
16	Bari	19	3	5	11	-20	-15.9	14
17	Pescara	19	2	7	10	-17	-1.4	13
18	Sampdoria	19	2	6	11	-15	-4.8	12
19	Reggiana	19	3	3	13	-18	-4.7	12
20	Virtus Entella	19	1	5	13	-24	-8.9	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.