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Serie B

Referee: L Marinelli

Catanzaro

U U S T T

3–0

Full-time

Avellino

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Catanzaro Avellino

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

100%

17%

Average goals

4,0

1,7

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 38/38 matches

Win Ø 37%

39%

34%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

55%

45%

Both score Ø 59%

68%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,76 xG 0,64

47% Possession 53%

20 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

20 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Catanzaro 5. · Avellino 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	38	24	10	4	+46	+37.2	82
2	Frosinone	38	23	12	3	+42	+12.1	81
3	Monza	38	22	10	6	+29	+16.5	76
4	Palermo	38	20	12	6	+28	+11.0	72
5	Catanzaro	38	15	14	9	+11	+0.0	59
6	Modena	39	15	10	14	+12	+5.8	55
7	Juve Stabia	39	12	18	9	+0	-0.9	54
8	Avellino	38	13	10	15	-12	-14.2	49
9	Padova	38	12	10	16	-10	-14.8	46
10	Cesena	38	12	10	16	-11	+3.4	46
11	Mantova	38	13	7	18	-12	-0.0	46
12	Carrarese	38	10	14	14	-5	-7.5	44
13	Sampdoria	38	11	11	16	-13	-1.7	44
14	Virtus Entella	38	10	12	16	-15	-7.3	42
15	Empoli	38	9	14	15	-7	+4.8	41
16	Sudtirol	38	8	17	13	-10	-4.2	41
17	Bari	38	10	10	18	-22	-24.4	40
18	Reggiana	38	9	10	19	-20	-9.9	37
19	Pescara	38	7	14	17	-15	-4.2	35
20	Spezia	38	8	11	19	-16	-1.6	35

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	19	17	0	2	+32	+21.2	51
2	Palermo	19	14	4	1	+26	+9.8	46
3	Monza	19	14	4	1	+22	+12.3	46
4	Frosinone	19	12	5	2	+27	+10.9	41
5	Catanzaro	19	9	8	2	+11	+3.2	35
6	Virtus Entella	19	9	7	3	+9	+1.6	34
7	Juve Stabia	19	8	9	2	+10	+6.0	33
8	Sampdoria	19	9	5	5	+2	+3.1	32
9	Avellino	19	9	5	5	+1	-1.5	32
10	Modena	20	9	4	7	+10	+0.3	31
11	Mantova	19	9	3	7	-1	+5.2	30
12	Carrarese	19	7	8	4	+9	+4.9	29
13	Empoli	19	5	11	3	+7	+10.4	26
14	Bari	19	7	5	7	-2	-8.4	26
15	Padova	19	6	7	6	-1	-5.4	25
16	Reggiana	19	6	7	6	-2	-5.2	25
17	Cesena	19	6	6	7	-1	+5.7	24
18	Pescara	19	5	7	7	+2	-2.8	22
19	Sudtirol	19	5	7	7	-2	-0.6	22
20	Spezia	19	5	6	8	-3	+2.2	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	19	11	7	1	+15	+1.2	40
2	Venezia	19	7	10	2	+14	+15.9	31
3	Monza	19	8	6	5	+7	+4.2	30
4	Palermo	19	6	8	5	+2	+1.2	26
5	Modena	19	6	6	7	+2	+5.6	24
6	Catanzaro	19	6	6	7	+0	-3.2	24
7	Cesena	19	6	4	9	-10	-2.3	22
8	Padova	19	6	3	10	-9	-9.3	21
9	Juve Stabia	20	4	9	7	-10	-6.9	21
10	Sudtirol	19	3	10	6	-8	-3.7	19
11	Avellino	19	4	5	10	-13	-12.7	17
12	Mantova	19	4	4	11	-11	-5.3	16
13	Carrarese	19	3	6	10	-14	-12.4	15
14	Empoli	19	4	3	12	-14	-5.6	15
15	Spezia	19	3	5	11	-13	-3.7	14
16	Bari	19	3	5	11	-20	-15.9	14
17	Pescara	19	2	7	10	-17	-1.4	13
18	Sampdoria	19	2	6	11	-15	-4.8	12
19	Reggiana	19	3	3	13	-18	-4.7	12
20	Virtus Entella	19	1	5	13	-24	-8.9	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.