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Ekstraklasa

Referee: L Kuźma

Lech Poznan

U S S S T

4–1

Full-time

Puszcza

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan Puszcza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 38%

56%

20%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

56%

50%

Both score Ø 69%

67%

70%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,36 xG 1,69

65% Possession 35%

13 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lech Poznan 6. · Puszcza 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	10	7	1	2	+8	+1.1	22
2	Legia	9	6	2	1	+9	+1.0	20
3	Rakow	9	6	1	2	+9	+5.7	19
4	Jagiellonia	9	6	1	2	+7	+3.6	19
5	Zaglebie	10	6	1	3	+2	+1.0	19
6	Lech Poznan	9	5	2	2	+2	-0.9	17
7	Pogon Szczecin	10	5	0	5	+6	+6.0	15
8	Cracovia	9	3	4	2	-2	+0.2	13
9	Stal Mielec	10	3	3	4	+1	-3.3	12
10	Piast Gliwice	10	2	6	2	+0	+9.4	12
11	Widzew Lodz	10	3	2	5	-3	-4.0	11
12	Radomiak Radom	10	3	2	5	-4	-0.2	11
13	Warta Poznan	11	2	4	5	-2	-0.0	10
14	Korona Kielce	10	2	4	4	-2	-2.6	10
15	Puszcza	10	2	3	5	-7	-6.6	9
16	Gornik Zabrze	10	2	3	5	-8	-7.1	9
17	Ruch Chorzow	10	1	4	5	-6	-3.1	7
18	LKS Lodz	10	2	1	7	-10	–	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	6	5	1	0	+11	+5.1	16
2	Jagiellonia	5	5	0	0	+10	+5.5	15
3	Legia	5	5	0	0	+10	+2.7	15
4	Zaglebie	5	4	1	0	+4	+1.5	13
5	Stal Mielec	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.3	11
6	Lech Poznan	4	3	1	0	+6	+3.2	10
7	Pogon Szczecin	6	3	0	3	+3	+7.6	9
8	Slask Wroclaw	4	3	0	1	+3	+1.6	9
9	Widzew Lodz	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.2	9
10	Piast Gliwice	5	2	2	1	+1	+7.5	8
11	Puszcza	5	2	2	1	+0	-0.6	8
12	LKS Lodz	5	2	1	2	-2	–	7
13	Korona Kielce	5	1	3	1	+1	+3.0	6
14	Radomiak Radom	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.1	5
15	Warta Poznan	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.7	5
16	Cracovia	4	1	2	1	-3	-0.6	5
17	Gornik Zabrze	5	1	2	2	-3	-2.5	5
18	Ruch Chorzow	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	6	4	1	1	+5	-0.5	13
2	Cracovia	5	2	2	1	+1	+0.8	8
3	Lech Poznan	5	2	1	2	-4	-4.1	7
4	Pogon Szczecin	4	2	0	2	+3	-1.6	6
5	Zaglebie	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.6	6
6	Radomiak Radom	6	2	0	4	-4	-0.3	6
7	Warta Poznan	5	1	2	2	+0	-0.8	5
8	Legia	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.7	5
9	Piast Gliwice	5	0	4	1	-1	+1.9	4
10	Korona Kielce	5	1	1	3	-3	-5.5	4
11	Jagiellonia	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.9	4
12	Gornik Zabrze	5	1	1	3	-5	-4.6	4
13	Rakow	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.6	3
14	Ruch Chorzow	6	0	3	3	-5	-2.3	3
15	Widzew Lodz	6	0	2	4	-5	-5.2	2
16	Stal Mielec	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.6	1
17	Puszcza	5	0	1	4	-7	-6.1	1
18	LKS Lodz	5	0	0	5	-8	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.