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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Birmingham

U T S T U

1–3

Full-time

Stoke

T T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 28%

30%

26%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

48%

35%

Both score Ø 48%

57%

39%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,60 xG 1,26

51% Possession 49%

14 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 18. · Stoke 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	23	19	1	3	+31	+21.4	58
2	Ipswich	23	16	4	3	+15	+10.4	52
3	Southampton	23	13	6	4	+13	+13.5	45
4	Leeds	23	12	6	5	+17	+18.9	42
5	West Brom	23	11	6	6	+13	+3.5	39
6	Sunderland	24	11	3	10	+6	+14.2	36
7	Hull	24	10	6	8	+5	+6.4	36
8	Bristol City	24	10	5	9	+3	+1.9	35
9	Preston	24	10	5	9	-10	-10.3	35
10	Watford	24	9	7	8	+6	+3.6	34
11	Norwich	23	10	4	9	+2	-2.7	34
12	Cardiff	24	10	4	10	+2	-7.1	34
13	Coventry	24	8	9	7	+8	+4.2	33
14	Middlesbrough	24	10	3	11	+0	+12.0	33
15	Blackburn	24	10	1	13	-8	-2.8	31
16	Plymouth	24	7	7	10	-1	-10.3	28
17	Swansea	24	7	7	10	-5	-7.4	28
18	Birmingham	23	7	6	10	-6	-3.8	27
19	Millwall	24	6	8	10	-5	-7.2	26
20	Huddersfield	24	5	10	9	-14	-12.9	25
21	Stoke	23	6	6	11	-9	-1.3	24
22	QPR	24	5	5	14	-15	-10.6	20
23	Sheffield Weds	24	4	4	16	-22	-4.8	16
24	Rotherham	24	3	7	14	-26	-28.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	12	10	0	2	+17	+12.1	30
2	Leeds	12	8	4	0	+16	+15.4	28
3	Ipswich	11	9	1	1	+13	+11.6	28
4	West Brom	12	7	3	2	+9	+6.7	24
5	Southampton	11	7	2	2	+13	+10.9	23
6	Plymouth	12	7	2	3	+11	-3.0	23
7	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+6	+4.8	22
8	Coventry	12	5	6	1	+7	+4.3	21
9	Sunderland	12	7	0	5	+4	+8.1	21
10	Cardiff	12	6	2	4	+5	-2.5	20
11	Bristol City	12	6	2	4	+3	+2.3	20
12	Preston	12	6	2	4	-5	-5.1	20
13	Watford	13	5	4	4	+7	+7.5	19
14	Hull	12	5	4	3	+7	+7.4	19
15	Birmingham	11	5	4	2	+5	-0.7	19
16	Middlesbrough	12	6	1	5	+2	+9.0	19
17	Stoke	12	4	3	5	-3	+1.8	15
18	Blackburn	12	5	0	7	-5	+0.2	15
19	Swansea	12	3	5	4	+0	+0.6	14
20	Rotherham	12	3	5	4	-1	-8.9	14
21	Huddersfield	12	3	5	4	-5	-3.7	14
22	Millwall	12	3	3	6	-6	-2.7	12
23	Sheffield Weds	12	3	3	6	-6	+0.3	12
24	QPR	11	2	3	6	-7	-3.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	11	9	1	1	+14	+9.3	28
2	Ipswich	12	7	3	2	+2	-1.2	24
3	Southampton	12	6	4	2	+0	+2.6	22
4	Hull	12	5	2	5	-2	-0.9	17
5	Blackburn	12	5	1	6	-3	-3.0	16
6	West Brom	11	4	3	4	+4	-3.2	15
7	Sunderland	12	4	3	5	+2	+6.2	15
8	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	+0	-0.5	15
9	Watford	11	4	3	4	-1	-3.9	15
10	Preston	12	4	3	5	-5	-5.2	15
11	Millwall	12	3	5	4	+1	-4.5	14
12	Leeds	11	4	2	5	+1	+3.4	14
13	Middlesbrough	12	4	2	6	-2	+3.0	14
14	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-3	-4.6	14
15	Swansea	12	4	2	6	-5	-8.0	14
16	Coventry	12	3	3	6	+1	-0.1	12
17	Norwich	12	3	3	6	-4	-7.6	12
18	QPR	13	3	2	8	-8	-7.4	11
19	Huddersfield	12	2	5	5	-9	-9.1	11
20	Stoke	11	2	3	6	-6	-3.2	9
21	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-11	-3.1	8
22	Plymouth	12	0	5	7	-12	-7.4	5
23	Sheffield Weds	12	1	1	10	-16	-5.1	4
24	Rotherham	12	0	2	10	-25	-19.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.