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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Cardiff

T S T T S

2–2

Full-time

Plymouth

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Plymouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 37%

43%

30%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

48%

70%

Both score Ø 52%

43%

61%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,17 xG 1,23

49% Possession 51%

17 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 11. · Plymouth 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	23	19	1	3	+31	+21.4	58
2	Ipswich	23	16	4	3	+15	+10.4	52
3	Leeds	23	12	6	5	+17	+18.9	42
4	Southampton	22	12	6	4	+8	+11.8	42
5	West Brom	22	10	6	6	+12	+1.9	36
6	Hull	23	10	6	7	+6	+6.7	36
7	Preston	24	10	5	9	-10	-10.3	35
8	Watford	23	9	7	7	+9	+3.9	34
9	Norwich	22	10	4	8	+3	-1.1	34
10	Sunderland	23	10	3	10	+5	+14.0	33
11	Cardiff	23	10	3	10	+2	-7.0	33
12	Middlesbrough	23	10	3	10	+1	+10.8	33
13	Bristol City	23	9	5	9	+0	+1.5	32
14	Blackburn	23	10	1	12	-5	-2.1	31
15	Coventry	23	7	9	7	+6	+5.3	30
16	Swansea	23	7	7	9	+0	-5.7	28
17	Plymouth	23	7	6	10	-1	-10.4	27
18	Birmingham	23	7	6	10	-6	-3.8	27
19	Millwall	24	6	8	10	-5	-7.2	26
20	Stoke	23	6	6	11	-9	-1.3	24
21	Huddersfield	23	4	10	9	-17	-13.6	22
22	QPR	24	5	5	14	-15	-10.6	20
23	Sheffield Weds	23	4	4	15	-20	-5.9	16
24	Rotherham	23	2	7	14	-27	-27.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	12	10	0	2	+17	+12.1	30
2	Leeds	12	8	4	0	+16	+15.4	28
3	Ipswich	11	9	1	1	+13	+11.6	28
4	Plymouth	12	7	2	3	+11	-3.0	23
5	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+6	+4.8	22
6	West Brom	11	6	3	2	+8	+5.1	21
7	Sunderland	12	7	0	5	+4	+8.1	21
8	Southampton	10	6	2	2	+8	+9.2	20
9	Bristol City	12	6	2	4	+3	+2.3	20
10	Preston	12	6	2	4	-5	-5.1	20
11	Watford	12	5	4	3	+10	+7.8	19
12	Hull	11	5	4	2	+8	+7.6	19
13	Birmingham	11	5	4	2	+5	-0.7	19
14	Cardiff	11	6	1	4	+5	-2.4	19
15	Middlesbrough	12	6	1	5	+2	+9.0	19
16	Coventry	11	4	6	1	+5	+5.4	18
17	Stoke	12	4	3	5	-3	+1.8	15
18	Blackburn	12	5	0	7	-5	+0.2	15
19	Swansea	12	3	5	4	+0	+0.6	14
20	Millwall	12	3	3	6	-6	-2.7	12
21	Sheffield Weds	12	3	3	6	-6	+0.3	12
22	Rotherham	11	2	5	4	-2	-7.7	11
23	Huddersfield	11	2	5	4	-8	-4.4	11
24	QPR	11	2	3	6	-7	-3.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	11	9	1	1	+14	+9.3	28
2	Ipswich	12	7	3	2	+2	-1.2	24
3	Southampton	12	6	4	2	+0	+2.6	22
4	Hull	12	5	2	5	-2	-0.9	17
5	Blackburn	11	5	1	5	+0	-2.4	16
6	West Brom	11	4	3	4	+4	-3.2	15
7	Watford	11	4	3	4	-1	-3.9	15
8	Preston	12	4	3	5	-5	-5.2	15
9	Millwall	12	3	5	4	+1	-4.5	14
10	Leeds	11	4	2	5	+1	+3.4	14
11	Swansea	11	4	2	5	+0	-6.3	14
12	Middlesbrough	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.8	14
13	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-3	-4.6	14
14	Coventry	12	3	3	6	+1	-0.1	12
15	Sunderland	11	3	3	5	+1	+5.9	12
16	Norwich	11	3	3	5	-3	-6.0	12
17	Bristol City	11	3	3	5	-3	-0.8	12
18	QPR	13	3	2	8	-8	-7.4	11
19	Huddersfield	12	2	5	5	-9	-9.1	11
20	Stoke	11	2	3	6	-6	-3.2	9
21	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-11	-3.1	8
22	Plymouth	11	0	4	7	-12	-7.4	4
23	Sheffield Weds	11	1	1	9	-14	-6.2	4
24	Rotherham	12	0	2	10	-25	-19.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.