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Superligaen

Referee: M Krogh

Nordsjaelland

S S S U S

1–1

Full-time

Aarhus

U U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nordsjaelland Aarhus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Superligaen · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 56%

52%

59%

Points per game

1,6

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 63%

52%

74%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,9

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,45 xG 1,13

58% Possession 42%

20 Shots 12

11 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 9

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 3

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nordsjaelland 3. · Aarhus 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aarhus	27	16	8	3	+23	+22.6	56
2	Midtjylland	27	15	9	3	+36	+7.2	54
3	Nordsjaelland	27	14	2	11	+3	-1.3	44
4	Brondby	28	12	5	11	+13	+9.7	41
5	FC Copenhagen	28	12	5	11	+11	+20.4	41
6	Viborg	28	12	4	12	+2	-4.3	40
7	Sonderjyske	27	10	8	9	-4	-4.1	38
8	Odense	28	10	7	11	-9	+4.1	37
9	Randers FC	27	8	6	13	-8	+4.5	30
10	Silkeborg	28	8	6	14	-22	-18.5	30
11	Fredericia	27	8	5	14	-22	-24.4	29
12	Vejle	28	3	9	16	-23	-15.9	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Midtjylland	14	8	5	1	+20	+7.1	29
2	Nordsjaelland	14	9	1	4	+12	+8.3	28
3	Aarhus	13	8	3	2	+12	+17.4	27
4	Sonderjyske	13	7	3	3	+6	+2.8	24
5	Odense	14	7	3	4	+0	+6.9	24
6	Brondby	14	6	3	5	+9	+6.2	21
7	Viborg	14	6	2	6	+2	-6.3	20
8	FC Copenhagen	14	5	4	5	+6	+16.9	19
9	Silkeborg	14	4	4	6	-6	-2.6	16
10	Randers FC	13	4	2	7	-7	+0.5	14
11	Vejle	15	3	4	8	-6	-4.7	13
12	Fredericia	13	3	3	7	-14	-8.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aarhus	14	8	5	1	+11	+5.1	29
2	Midtjylland	13	7	4	2	+16	+0.1	25
3	FC Copenhagen	14	7	1	6	+5	+3.5	22
4	Brondby	14	6	2	6	+4	+3.5	20
5	Viborg	14	6	2	6	+0	+2.0	20
6	Fredericia	14	5	2	7	-8	-16.4	17
7	Randers FC	14	4	4	6	-1	+4.0	16
8	Nordsjaelland	13	5	1	7	-9	-9.6	16
9	Sonderjyske	14	3	5	6	-10	-6.9	14
10	Silkeborg	14	4	2	8	-16	-15.8	14
11	Odense	14	3	4	7	-9	-2.8	13
12	Vejle	13	0	5	8	-17	-11.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.