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Superligaen

Referee: S Putros

Midtjylland

T T U U S

2–1

Full-time

Aarhus

U U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Midtjylland Aarhus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Superligaen · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 58%

54%

62%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

62%

54%

Both score Ø 68%

62%

73%

Average goals

3,5

2,9

Scored

2,4

1,9

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,53 xG 2,13

66% Possession 34%

12 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Midtjylland 2. · Aarhus 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aarhus	26	16	8	2	+24	+21.0	56
2	Midtjylland	26	14	9	3	+35	+8.8	51
3	Nordsjaelland	27	14	2	11	+3	-1.3	44
4	Viborg	27	12	4	11	+3	-3.4	40
5	Brondby	27	11	5	11	+12	+8.8	38
6	FC Copenhagen	27	11	5	11	+10	+19.4	38
7	Sonderjyske	27	10	8	9	-4	-4.1	38
8	Odense	27	10	7	10	-8	+5.1	37
9	Randers FC	27	8	6	13	-8	+4.5	30
10	Fredericia	27	8	5	14	-22	-24.4	29
11	Silkeborg	27	7	6	14	-23	-18.5	27
12	Vejle	27	3	9	15	-22	-15.8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nordsjaelland	14	9	1	4	+12	+8.3	28
2	Aarhus	13	8	3	2	+12	+17.4	27
3	Midtjylland	13	7	5	1	+19	+8.7	26
4	Sonderjyske	13	7	3	3	+6	+2.8	24
5	Odense	14	7	3	4	+0	+6.9	24
6	Brondby	14	6	3	5	+9	+6.2	21
7	Viborg	13	6	2	5	+3	-5.4	20
8	FC Copenhagen	13	4	4	5	+5	+15.9	16
9	Silkeborg	14	4	4	6	-6	-2.6	16
10	Randers FC	13	4	2	7	-7	+0.5	14
11	Vejle	14	3	4	7	-5	-4.7	13
12	Fredericia	13	3	3	7	-14	-8.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aarhus	13	8	5	0	+12	+3.5	29
2	Midtjylland	13	7	4	2	+16	+0.1	25
3	FC Copenhagen	14	7	1	6	+5	+3.5	22
4	Viborg	14	6	2	6	+0	+2.0	20
5	Brondby	13	5	2	6	+3	+2.6	17
6	Fredericia	14	5	2	7	-8	-16.4	17
7	Randers FC	14	4	4	6	-1	+4.0	16
8	Nordsjaelland	13	5	1	7	-9	-9.6	16
9	Sonderjyske	14	3	5	6	-10	-6.9	14
10	Odense	13	3	4	6	-8	-1.9	13
11	Silkeborg	13	3	2	8	-17	-15.9	11
12	Vejle	13	0	5	8	-17	-11.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.