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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Middlesbrough

S S U S T

1–2

Full-time

Burnley

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,8

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

This season — Championship · 38/38 matches

Win Ø 58%

53%

63%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

66%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

63%

53%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,9

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 3. · Burnley 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	38	24	12	2	+45	84
2	Sheffield United	39	23	7	9	+27	76
3	Middlesbrough	38	20	7	11	+26	67
4	Luton	37	18	11	8	+13	65
5	Millwall	40	17	11	12	+8	62
6	Blackburn	39	19	4	16	-2	61
7	Norwich	40	17	9	14	+12	60
8	Preston	40	16	11	13	-5	59
9	West Brom	39	15	11	13	+6	56
10	Watford	40	14	13	13	+2	55
11	Coventry	38	14	12	12	+5	54
12	Sunderland	38	14	11	13	+7	53
13	Bristol City	40	13	13	14	+0	52
14	Stoke	40	14	9	17	+6	51
15	Swansea	40	13	11	16	-5	50
16	Birmingham	40	13	10	17	-7	49
17	Hull	40	12	13	15	-10	49
18	Reading	40	13	8	19	-18	47
19	Rotherham	39	10	14	15	-8	44
20	Cardiff	39	11	9	19	-12	42
21	Huddersfield	40	11	9	20	-18	42
22	QPR	40	11	9	20	-24	42
23	Wigan	40	8	13	19	-26	37
24	Blackpool	40	8	11	21	-22	35

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	20	14	6	0	+30	48
2	Blackburn	19	13	1	5	+9	40
3	Middlesbrough	19	11	6	2	+22	39
4	Sheffield United	19	12	3	4	+19	39
5	Millwall	20	10	6	4	+12	36
6	West Brom	20	10	6	4	+11	36
7	Reading	20	10	5	5	+7	35
8	Watford	20	9	6	5	+10	33
9	Luton	19	8	7	4	+7	31
10	Bristol City	20	8	6	6	+6	30
11	Rotherham	19	8	5	6	+9	29
12	Coventry	18	8	5	5	+2	29
13	Norwich	20	8	4	8	+4	28
14	Swansea	20	8	4	8	+2	28
15	Birmingham	20	7	5	8	+2	26
16	Huddersfield	20	7	5	8	-2	26
17	Hull	20	7	5	8	-5	26
18	Sunderland	19	6	6	7	-1	24
19	Cardiff	20	6	6	8	-2	24
20	Preston	20	6	6	8	-6	24
21	Stoke	20	6	5	9	+1	23
22	QPR	20	6	4	10	-9	22
23	Blackpool	20	5	6	9	-4	21
24	Wigan	20	4	6	10	-17	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	20	11	4	5	+8	37
2	Burnley	18	10	6	2	+15	36
3	Preston	20	10	5	5	+1	35
4	Luton	18	10	4	4	+6	34
5	Norwich	20	9	5	6	+8	32
6	Sunderland	19	8	5	6	+8	29
7	Stoke	20	8	4	8	+5	28
8	Middlesbrough	19	9	1	9	+4	28
9	Millwall	20	7	5	8	-4	26
10	Coventry	20	6	7	7	+3	25
11	Hull	20	5	8	7	-5	23
12	Birmingham	20	6	5	9	-9	23
13	Bristol City	20	5	7	8	-6	22
14	Swansea	20	5	7	8	-7	22
15	Watford	20	5	7	8	-8	22
16	Blackburn	20	6	3	11	-11	21
17	West Brom	19	5	5	9	-5	20
18	QPR	20	5	5	10	-15	20
19	Wigan	20	4	7	9	-9	19
20	Cardiff	19	5	3	11	-10	18
21	Huddersfield	20	4	4	12	-16	16
22	Rotherham	20	2	9	9	-17	15
23	Blackpool	20	3	5	12	-18	14
24	Reading	20	3	3	14	-25	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.