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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Burnley

S T S S S

3–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,2

3,0

Scored

2,7

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,0

This season — Championship · 22/21 matches

Win Ø 47%

55%

38%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

45%

62%

Both score Ø 66%

64%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

11 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 1

3 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 4

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 1. · Middlesbrough 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	22	12	8	2	+20	44
2	Sheffield United	22	12	5	5	+17	41
3	Blackburn	22	12	0	10	-1	36
4	Norwich	22	10	5	7	+7	35
5	Watford	22	9	7	6	+6	34
6	Preston	22	9	7	6	+1	34
7	Birmingham	23	8	8	7	+4	32
8	Millwall	22	9	5	8	+1	32
9	Reading	23	10	2	11	-7	32
10	QPR	22	9	4	9	-1	31
11	Swansea	22	8	7	7	-2	31
12	Middlesbrough	21	8	6	7	+5	30
13	Sunderland	21	8	5	8	+5	29
14	Luton	21	7	8	6	+0	29
15	Bristol City	22	7	6	9	+0	27
16	West Brom	21	6	8	7	+1	26
17	Coventry	19	7	5	7	+1	26
18	Rotherham	22	6	8	8	-3	26
19	Stoke	22	7	5	10	-5	26
20	Cardiff	22	7	4	11	-8	25
21	Hull	22	7	4	11	-14	25
22	Wigan	22	6	6	10	-10	24
23	Blackpool	22	6	5	11	-9	23
24	Huddersfield	21	5	4	12	-8	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	11	7	4	0	+13	25
2	Blackburn	11	8	0	3	+7	24
3	Millwall	11	7	2	2	+9	23
4	Reading	11	7	1	3	+5	22
5	Sheffield United	11	6	3	2	+12	21
6	Watford	11	6	2	3	+7	20
7	Norwich	11	5	3	3	+6	18
8	Birmingham	12	4	5	3	+4	17
9	QPR	11	5	2	4	+2	17
10	Middlesbrough	11	4	5	2	+2	17
11	Swansea	11	5	2	4	+1	17
12	Rotherham	11	4	3	4	+3	15
13	Bristol City	11	4	3	4	+3	15
14	Huddersfield	11	4	2	5	+0	14
15	Cardiff	11	4	2	5	-1	14
16	Coventry	8	4	1	3	+3	13
17	Sunderland	11	3	4	4	+2	13
18	West Brom	11	3	4	4	+0	13
19	Preston	11	3	4	4	-4	13
20	Luton	10	2	6	2	+2	12
21	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-3	12
22	Hull	11	4	0	7	-9	12
23	Blackpool	11	3	2	6	-4	11
24	Wigan	11	2	3	6	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	11	6	3	2	+5	21
2	Sheffield United	11	6	2	3	+5	20
3	Burnley	11	5	4	2	+7	19
4	Norwich	11	5	2	4	+1	17
5	Luton	11	5	2	4	-2	17
6	Sunderland	10	5	1	4	+3	16
7	Wigan	11	4	3	4	+0	15
8	Birmingham	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Watford	11	3	5	3	-1	14
10	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-2	14
11	Swansea	11	3	5	3	-3	14
12	QPR	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Middlesbrough	10	4	1	5	+3	13
14	West Brom	10	3	4	3	+1	13
15	Coventry	11	3	4	4	-2	13
16	Hull	11	3	4	4	-5	13
17	Bristol City	11	3	3	5	-3	12
18	Blackpool	11	3	3	5	-5	12
19	Blackburn	11	4	0	7	-8	12
20	Rotherham	11	2	5	4	-6	11
21	Cardiff	11	3	2	6	-7	11
22	Reading	12	3	1	8	-12	10
23	Millwall	11	2	3	6	-8	9
24	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.