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Champions League
Referee: Jesús Gil
Dortmund
S S S S S
1–0
Full-time
Chelsea
T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
100%
17%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,8
1,7
Scored
2,8
0,5
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,49 xG 2,20
48% Possession 52%
14 Shots 21
2 Shots on target 8
7 Blocked shots 6
7 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 10
0 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 12
6 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Dortmund Chelsea
9′
🟨 Reece James
16′
🟨 Thiago Silva
Half-time 0–0
Jude Bellingham 🟨
49′
Emre Can 🟨
53′
1–0 K. Adeyemi ⚽
Raphaël Guerreiro
63′
A. Modeste 🔁
↦ S. Haller
68′
71′
🔁 M. Mount
↦ M. Mudryk
71′
🔁 Marc Cucurella
↦ B. Chilwell
72′
🟨 Hakim Ziyech
J. Ryerson 🔁
↦ M. Wolf
73′
Karim Adeyemi 🟨
77′
J. Bynoe-Gittens 🔁
↦ K. Adeyemi
79′
Salih Özcan 🟨
85′
Niklas Süle 🟨
90′
Julian Ryerson 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Mason Mount
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-1-4-1
1 G. Kobel G
17 M. Wolf D
25 N. Süle D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
13 Raphaël Guerreiro D
23 E. Can M
19 J. Brandt M
22 J. Bellingham M
6 S. Özcan M
27 K. Adeyemi M
9 S. Haller F
Bench (12)
20 A. Modeste
26 J. Ryerson
43 J. Bynoe-Gittens
36 T. Rothe
24 T. Meunier
44 S. Coulibaly
8 M. Dahoud
21 D. Malen
15 M. Hummels
7 G. Reyna
33 A. Meyer
11 M. Reus

Coach: E. Terzić

Chelsea

4-2-3-1
1 Kepa G
24 R. James D
6 Thiago Silva D
26 K. Koulibaly D
21 B. Chilwell D
12 R. Loftus-Cheek M
5 E. Fernández M
22 H. Ziyech M
11 João Félix M
15 M. Mudryk M
29 K. Havertz F
Bench (12)
19 M. Mount
32 Marc Cucurella
47 L. Bergström
67 L. Hall
8 M. Kovačić
33 W. Fofana
14 T. Chalobah
20 D. Zakaria
23 C. Gallagher
30 C. Chukwuemeka
28 César Azpilicueta
13 M. Bettinelli

Coach: G. Potter

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jesús Gil · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.