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Premier League

Referee: Stuart Attwell

Aston Villa

S T U T S

2–1

Full-time

Chelsea

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 46%

41%

51%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 45%

49%

41%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

28% Possession 72%

6 Shots 23

3 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 9

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Chelsea 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	37	26	5	6	+46	83
2	Man United	37	20	11	6	+28	71
3	Chelsea	37	19	10	8	+23	67
4	Liverpool	37	19	9	9	+24	66
5	Leicester	37	20	6	11	+20	66
6	West Ham	37	18	8	11	+12	62
7	Tottenham	37	17	8	12	+21	59
8	Everton	37	17	8	12	+4	59
9	Arsenal	37	17	7	13	+14	58
10	Leeds	37	17	5	15	+6	56
11	Aston Villa	37	15	7	15	+8	52
12	Wolves	37	12	9	16	-15	45
13	Crystal Palace	37	12	8	17	-23	44
14	Southampton	37	12	7	18	-18	43
15	Newcastle	37	11	9	17	-18	42
16	Brighton	37	9	14	14	-4	41
17	Burnley	37	10	9	18	-21	39
18	Fulham	37	5	13	19	-24	28
19	West Brom	37	5	11	21	-39	26
20	Sheffield United	37	6	2	29	-44	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	12	2	4	+21	38
2	Tottenham	19	10	3	6	+15	33
3	Chelsea	19	9	6	4	+13	33
4	Man United	19	9	4	6	+10	31
5	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
6	Liverpool	18	9	3	6	+7	30
7	Leicester	18	9	1	8	+6	28
8	Southampton	19	8	3	8	+3	27
9	Leeds	18	7	5	6	+5	26
10	Arsenal	18	7	4	7	+1	25
11	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-3	25
12	Newcastle	19	6	5	8	-7	23
13	Crystal Palace	19	6	5	8	-12	23
14	Aston Villa	18	6	4	8	+1	22
15	Everton	19	6	4	9	-4	22
16	Brighton	19	4	9	6	+0	21
17	Burnley	19	4	6	9	-13	18
18	West Brom	19	3	6	10	-24	15
19	Sheffield United	18	4	1	13	-16	13
20	Fulham	18	2	4	12	-17	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	19	14	3	2	+25	45
2	Man United	18	11	7	0	+18	40
3	Leicester	19	11	5	3	+14	38
4	Everton	18	11	4	3	+8	37
5	Liverpool	19	10	6	3	+17	36
6	Chelsea	18	10	4	4	+10	34
7	Arsenal	19	10	3	6	+13	33
8	West Ham	19	9	4	6	+5	31
9	Aston Villa	19	9	3	7	+7	30
10	Leeds	19	10	0	9	+1	30
11	Tottenham	18	7	5	6	+6	26
12	Burnley	18	6	3	9	-8	21
13	Crystal Palace	18	6	3	9	-11	21
14	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-4	20
15	Wolves	19	5	5	9	-12	20
16	Newcastle	18	5	4	9	-11	19
17	Fulham	19	3	9	7	-7	18
18	Southampton	18	4	4	10	-21	16
19	West Brom	18	2	5	11	-15	11
20	Sheffield United	19	2	1	16	-28	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.