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Premier League

Referee: A Marriner

Man City

S S U U S

2–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 42%

46%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

23%

46%

Both score Ø 54%

46%

62%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

75% Possession 25%

11 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 9. · Newcastle 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+17	31
2	Leicester	15	9	1	5	+9	28
3	Man United	14	8	3	3	+7	27
4	Everton	14	8	2	4	+6	26
5	Aston Villa	13	8	1	4	+14	25
6	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+13	25
7	Tottenham	14	7	4	3	+11	25
8	Southampton	15	7	4	4	+6	25
9	Man City	13	6	5	2	+7	23
10	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+2	21
11	Wolves	14	6	2	6	-5	20
12	Newcastle	13	5	3	5	-5	18
13	Crystal Palace	15	5	3	7	-9	18
14	Arsenal	15	5	2	8	-4	17
15	Leeds	14	5	2	7	-6	17
16	Burnley	13	3	4	6	-11	13
17	Brighton	14	2	6	6	-6	12
18	Fulham	15	2	5	8	-10	11
19	West Brom	14	1	4	9	-19	7
20	Sheffield United	14	0	2	12	-17	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+13	21
2	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+10	14
3	Everton	7	4	1	2	+4	13
4	Southampton	7	4	0	3	+4	12
5	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
6	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+4	10
10	Leicester	8	3	1	4	-1	10
11	Arsenal	8	3	1	4	-2	10
12	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	-4	10
13	Leeds	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Man United	7	2	2	3	-3	8
15	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-6	8
16	Burnley	6	2	1	3	-3	7
17	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-6	6
18	West Brom	7	1	2	4	-10	5
19	Brighton	7	0	4	3	-4	4
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	7	6	1	0	+10	19
2	Leicester	7	6	0	1	+10	18
3	Aston Villa	6	5	0	1	+10	15
4	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+9	14
5	Southampton	8	3	4	1	+2	13
6	Everton	7	4	1	2	+2	13
7	Man City	7	3	3	1	+2	12
8	Chelsea	8	3	2	3	+3	11
9	Liverpool	7	2	4	1	+4	10
10	West Ham	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Crystal Palace	8	3	1	4	-3	10
12	Leeds	7	3	0	4	-5	9
13	Wolves	7	3	0	4	-6	9
14	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-1	8
15	Brighton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
16	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-2	7
17	Burnley	7	1	3	3	-8	6
18	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	West Brom	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.