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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Tondela

T T U U T

3–2

Full-time

Portimonense

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 28%

22%

33%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

57% Possession 43%

28 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 8

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Portimonense 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	28	22	3	3	+53	69
2	Porto	28	22	3	3	+41	69
3	Sp Lisbon	28	19	4	5	+28	61
4	Sp Braga	28	18	4	6	+18	58
5	Moreirense	28	15	3	10	+0	48
6	Guimaraes	28	13	6	9	+11	45
7	Belenenses	28	9	12	7	+4	39
8	Santa Clara	28	10	6	12	+0	36
9	Portimonense	27	9	5	13	-7	32
10	Rio Ave	28	8	8	12	-7	32
11	Vitoria Setubal	28	7	10	11	-5	31
12	Aves	28	8	6	14	-11	30
13	Maritimo	28	9	3	16	-15	30
14	Boavista	28	8	5	15	-14	29
15	Nacional	28	7	6	15	-28	27
16	Tondela	27	6	7	14	-12	25
17	Chaves	28	6	6	16	-23	24
18	Feirense	28	2	9	17	-33	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	13	1	1	+23	40
2	Porto	14	12	0	2	+26	36
3	Sp Braga	14	11	1	2	+15	34
4	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+31	32
5	Guimaraes	14	9	3	2	+13	30
6	Moreirense	14	8	3	3	+3	27
7	Portimonense	14	6	4	4	+6	22
8	Boavista	14	7	1	6	+2	22
9	Belenenses	14	5	5	4	+5	20
10	Nacional	15	5	3	7	-5	18
11	Vitoria Setubal	14	4	5	5	+0	17
12	Rio Ave	14	4	5	5	-2	17
13	Santa Clara	14	5	2	7	-2	17
14	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-4	17
15	Aves	14	4	3	7	-3	15
16	Tondela	13	4	3	6	-5	15
17	Chaves	14	3	5	6	-5	14
18	Feirense	14	1	5	8	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Porto	14	10	3	1	+15	33
3	Sp Braga	14	7	3	4	+3	24
4	Sp Lisbon	13	6	3	4	+5	21
5	Moreirense	14	7	0	7	-3	21
6	Santa Clara	14	5	4	5	+2	19
7	Belenenses	14	4	7	3	-1	19
8	Guimaraes	14	4	3	7	-2	15
9	Rio Ave	14	4	3	7	-5	15
10	Aves	14	4	3	7	-8	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	5	6	-5	14
12	Maritimo	15	4	1	10	-11	13
13	Tondela	14	2	4	8	-7	10
14	Portimonense	13	3	1	9	-13	10
15	Chaves	14	3	1	10	-18	10
16	Nacional	13	2	3	8	-23	9
17	Boavista	14	1	4	9	-16	7
18	Feirense	14	1	4	9	-22	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.